The Cellar - We need more Names

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- Current Events (http://cellar.org/forumdisplay.php?f=4)

- - We need more Names (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=33720)

We need more Names

BTW, the Pacific also has a tropical storm. The 16th this year. Three are currently in the Atlantic.

Once upon a time, an active hurricane season was four storms. 1960 meant Donna (fourth storm) was an unusually active season. Donna was particularly large - a category three. Hurricanes rarely got beyond the letter C.

Today a normal season is over 10 storms. Ten is a quiet year. 2005 was so active that the hurricane center ran out of name; resorted to using Greek letters Alpha, Beta, Gamma .... Epsilon, and Zeta. That was 31 tropical storms of which 28 became hurricanes.

The Don says global warming does not exist. This is normal. It must be true. The Don says so.

We just need a longer alphabet. Apparently the Russian alphabet has 33 letters -maybe The Don could ask hit buddy The Vlad if we can use that one?

Dr. Seuss has us covered there. Look out for Hurricane Yuzz-a-ma-Tuzz.

Nazareth is ready w/a similar name.

Inspired by tw's original post, I went to find out what the actual science says about the number of Atlantic hurricanes and global warming.

The definitive look at this is presented by the Geographical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at NOAA: "Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results", revised June 2018.

The current science says:

Quote:

Originally Posted by NOAA Scientists

In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity. Reduced aerosol forcing since the 1970s probably contributed to the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since then, but the amount of contribution, relative to natural variability, remains uncertain.

TL;DR: top scientists agree, the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes cannot be attributed to global warming. It should theoretically increase them a bit, and may in the future. It's somewhat possible it may have changed how they operate in the Pacific. But so far, warming, in the Atlantic, no.

What? But the number of named tropical storms and hurricanes has increased!

Yes; and NOAA concludes, it's because we didn't notice them as much back in time. In the mid-60s, our ability to detect storms started to rise dramatically, when we worked out how to launch satellites to study the planet. Before that, a lot of storms were only found when ships at sea encountered them.

Are you saying AGW is a sham?!

No, I have earlier posted evidence of it. The satellites also find the warming.

Estimating the potential impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence

Quote:

Methodology.

The global atmospheric model CAM5 is set up in a variable-resolution configuration with a base grid spacing of ~100 km, similar to conventional atmospheric general circulation models, and a refined region over the North Atlantic basin with a grid spacing of ~28 km. The model is initialized with atmospheric analyses from NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) following the technique outlined in Zarzycki and Jablonowski (2015) and run for 7 days and the first 5 days are analyzed. For Hurricane Florence, the model is initialized on 9/11 at 00z. To account for model uncertainty in storm characteristics, a 10*member ensemble is created by randomly varying three parameters (c0_ocn, tau, and dmpdz) in the deep convective parameterization (Zhang and McFarlane 1995). TC tracks from the forecast runs are generated using the TempestExtremes algorithm (Ullrich and Zarzycki 2017). For modified forecasts with the climate change signal removed, the methodology follows the the framework of Wehner et al. (2018). In particular, the air temperature, specific humidity, and sea surface temperature from the observed initial conditions are modified to remove climate change effect. Data from the C20C Detection and Attribution project ( portal.nersc.gov/c20c ) define the initial conditions for the counterfactual “storm that might have been”. Differences between global simulations driven by observed boundary conditions and simulations driven by conditions with the human induced climate change removed are calculated for September over the 1996-2016 period and approximate the change in the large scale environment attributable to climate change. Additionally, the greenhouse gas concentrations, solar radiation conditions, ozone concentration, and aerosol concentrations are all set to pre-industrial levels for the modified forecasts.

I say they are weapons of mass destruction, and we know they come from western Sahara, Mauritania, Morocco, and Algeria. So obviously we should declare war on Africa. USA! USA!

We'll see if the NOAA folks concur.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1014997)

We'll see if the NOAA folks concur.

Update, what will the Stony Brook folks say about the weakening?

This wasn't supposed to happen... damn storm, not following the narrative. Now it looks like the non-climate change version... what to do??

via @HellerWeather on twitter

Seeing a horizontal band of storms really made the "tropical storm" part clear for me.

re: florence weakening -- isn't that just the wind speed dropping? their paper was about rainfall and area.

They mention a longer time classified at a high category in the summary. The "intensity" graph is air pressure, rather than windspeed, but they're related. The "size" graph is also indirectly related to windspeed, as the "edge" of the storm is where the wind is 18mph. Not directly related, as a storm can "spread out", and become bigger while losing maximum windspeed.

I was a kid in SE Texas when Hurricane Carla showed her ugly face. A big limb from the crabapple tree in the backyard came through our living room ceiling. Wheeee! Dad (god bless 'im) got up on the roof with a tarp and tried to cover the hole/limb the best he could, just to keep the pounding rain out of the house. Didn't help much, but I have a very vivid and lasting memory of that day, and I was only 3.

Another memory from a later hurricane (Betsy?) . . . riding my bike through the flooded neighborhood streets, hitting a submerged something, and taking a face-first header into the water.

Ah. Good times, good times.

As for new names - why do they have to have people names? Why can't we start using names like Devil Dog, Big Mammajamma, or Get Out While You Can! ?

Live webcam of Florence arriving 34 miles off the coast (mute your speakers):

Ne'ermind, it's basically gone. Here's what it looked like about 15 minutes ago, right after the color died...

Apparently people in the YouTube chat (I had no idea that was a thing) had named the flag Kevin, and were lamenting his apparent demise.