Would Trump win again if a new election was today?
A thought experiment.
It looks like a lot of the non-Trump voters are now fully activated. It looks like stronger activation than the tea party, which was activated in 2009-2010 time frame. But the tea party didn't unelect Obama in 2012, and the non-Trump voters still only get one vote per person, no matter how activated they are; It seems to me that these new efforts are only interested in, and only effective at, reaching the already-converted; but perhaps I don't know; Meanwhile, the Trump voters were so silent in their support that they would not honestly answer pollsters; one can only assume their pack of opposition to the opposition is intact, or can one? And if he is unsuccessful at pressing the issues on which he was voted in, that surely doesn't soothe the people who voted on those issues one iota, right? For example, the 40%* of the country that is angrily pro-refugee are now convinced harder to vote against Trump. And I believe that the airport-based protests were effective at communicating on the issue. But, aren't they inadvertently convincing the 60% that Trujmp is trying as hard as he can on their behalf, and his meeting with resistance is actually admirable? *made-up statistic |
I think a small number of Trump voters would stay home. Most would still vote for him, and some left leaning folks who stayed home would come out to vote for Hillary this time.
No idea if it would be enough in those key states to win the electoral college. |
I have no clue.
But here are what I consider to be the two main factors:
And this question could be revisited when when have an idea of what's up with the ACA. Though he would probably be able to let Congress take the blame for any problems there. |
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Don't know but 2020 should be interesting seeing he has already filed for reelection.
Not likely to go anywhere but interesting... |
My gut says there would be a small shift in voters for the reasons given. It would really take just a small shift. Two nominees with huge negatives, still a small turnout. I read that Hillary is already running again, New Zealand is a beautiful place.
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Do you expect the Donald to die in a boardroom meeting - or a cabinet meeting? Since he clearly has not separated himself from his businesses. |
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The whole bit is great, but this segment applies to footfootfoot's amendment of tw's post. |
Is that really how you want to spend the last two years of your life?
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I LOLed.
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His timing is great, as is his delivery.
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Shouldn't the question be, would he be re-elected if he were running again in 2018?
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