[Undertoad]

Human history seems logical in afterthought but a mystery in forethought. Writers of history have a way of describing interwar societies as coursing from postwar to prewar as though people alive at the time knew when that transition occurred. It is a useful exercise to picture yourself... eight to ten years before the crisis/war. What could a person reasonably have foreseen?

- In 1920, American had polarized into competing moral camps, and a mood of alienated pleasure-seeking was settling in. Could people have envisioned the economy crashing down on the heads of a shortsighted, risk-taking public? Possibly. What about global depression, political upheaval, and another world war worse than the last? No.

- In 1850, a new north-south compromise had just been worked out and the Republican party did not exist. Could people have envisioned an incipient abolitionist party seizing the White House? Possibly. What about a horrifying national hemmorhage, a Civil War bloodier than any known war in the history of mankind? No.

- In 1764, England still pampered its New World colonies and forebore from making their inhabitants pay the full cost of their wars and governance. Could people have envisioned heavy new taxes and an armed crushing of popular resistance? Possibly. What about a war for independence, the coalescence of thirteen quarreling colonies into one new nation, and the creation of a constitutional republic? No.

Strauss/Howe, The Fourth Turning