[richlevy]

In order to survive, Iraq will have to break apart or at least into a loose federation of three states. Similar to what happened when Pakistan was created, both in the fact that tensions between Hindus and Muslims in India became so bad that the Muslims had to be granted autonomy, and in that Pakistan itself was created as a loose federation to ease tensions between different groups.

As for the draft, the prediction I made to my son when we invaded Iraq that there was a chance the draft would come back while he was under 27 seems more and more likely. The only other alternative would be to build a large 'foreign legion' of non-citizens, an extremely dangerous choice.

Of course such a move would be political suicide, which is why the Bush adminstration will dump their mess on the next president.

We may see the devolution of the National Guard now that combat has become more likely. From a cost-benefit point of view, an individual should sign up for the Reserves or active military if the government is as likely to use them.

After watching soldiers be kept in combat after their contracts expire, fighting a war based more on foreign policy than on actual homeland defense, the non-active military will suffer losses. For all the 'gung-ho' public speech from the Guard troops, noone can know their true thoughts as a group until they get home, given a code of conduct that is in effect a gag order. They will vote with their feet as will their relatives and friends after they can privately ask them 'was it worth it'.