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I'm not sure whether you have considered pathos as a variable in your equations?
If you use the last piece of bread in the house for the toast, on the day before payday, where you have already raided the back of the sofa for coins, where you are hungry and craving toast and your kitchen floor is overdue a clean..... I think you'll find the toast will land butter side down 99.9% of the time.
Not sure how you could replicate this in your experiment though, as in order to conduct it you have to choose to waste the toast. Perhaps if you sneak into someone else's house, tie them up & force them to watch their last hot snack being commandeered in the name of Science?
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