[Cyclefrance]

As far as I can tell, no one yet knows how and when (notice, no 'if') this strain will mutate such that it transfers as an airborne virus from one human to another (the worst case scenario).

Right now the strain only transfers between birds and aparently not all species - most susceptive are chicken, turkeys, ducks and other waterborne birds suggesting that it may transfer via water contamination. It has certainly moved quickly into Europe, with isolated (if we believe government reporting) cases in France alreday - some say it is already in the UK but a lid is on this fact being published.

Human infection so far has arisen through ingesting infected animal blood or other tissue, not from breathing the same air.

The chance that the virus will mutate to become airborne between humans is a relatively big jump, as is the option that it mutates into something extremely fatal as opposed to having its potency alternatively reduced and becoming an extension of an existing flu virus, maybe more virulent but not as fatal as it otherwise could be.

What alarms everyone is that should the worst case scenario arise then it will spread like wildfire. Given that we cannot really begin to manufacture an effective vaccine until it mutates, that leaves our governments and scientists with a teensy-weensy little problem....

All still too many unknown quantities at this stage, and there's not much we can do to prevent its arrival anyway, only hope that where it is possible to take steps to reduce the spread amongst birds (such as keeping stock inside barns and therefore isolated) that these are strictly followed. Trouble is that there will likely always be some farmers of chickens, turkeys and the like who will fail to do this - that's what feeds the concerns that it will get out of control. And we have only just about recovered from the BSE epidemic that spread because of such a problem a few years back....