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Originally Posted by Kitsune
The 1918 flu took 18 months to run its cycle. Staying home that long is not only an unpleasant experience, I'm also not sure that it is really possible.
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National Geographic did an excellent article on this last year. They had a graph that showed the spread in various cities and the number of dead in each city over time. The entire epidemic took 18 months or so to run it's course globally, but each individual city went through a peak of infections and deaths that lasted about 2 months. You could easily see how the cities fell individually like dominos.
That was before airlines and widespread world travel. I predict that a global outbreak would take a couple of weeks to spread to all cities of the industrialized world, and then about 2 months or so in each one of those cities to run its course. It would be a whirlwind.