Two senior US generals yesterday publicly agreed with a warning by Britain's outgoing ambassador to Iraq, William Patey, that the country is slipping towards civil war and partition.
"I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I've seen it in Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move toward civil war," General John Abizaid, the head of US Central Command, told the senate.
General Peter Pace, the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, agreed that "we do have the possibility of that devolving into civil war" and said only Iraqis could ultimately stop the slide.
"Shia and Sunni are going to have to love their children more than they hate each other," Gen Pace said.
The generals were responding to questions on Mr Patey's views, which caused a stir in the US after his valedictory memo to Tony Blair was leaked to the BBC.
Mr Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.
"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq - a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt."
The comments reflect an increasing impatience on both sides of the Atlantic with other resolutely upbeat assessments of the political leadership.
Gen Abizaid's views were also more sombre than those expressed by the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, who was sitting alongside him at yesterday's Senate hearing.
"A couple of days ago I returned from the Middle East. I've rarely seen it so unsettled or volatile," the general said.
Neither Mr Patey nor Gen Abizaid described the situation as beyond repair. The British diplomat argued that Iraq's "position is not hopeless". He said much depended on the choices the Iraqi government made over the next six months, primarily in strengthening the Iraqi security forces. Among other moves, he proposed clamping down on the militia forces, in particular the Shia Mahdi army: "If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy, then preventing the Jaish al-Mahdi from developing into a state within a state, as Hizbullah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority."
He predicted the country would remain "messy and difficult" for the next five to 10 years. Gen Abizaid's prognosis was similar. He described the coming battle with sectarian militias in Baghdad as "decisive" and suggested that the situation could "start moving towards equilibrium" in five years.
But he added that the Iraq insurgency "has a lot of resiliency, it's probably going to last for some time even after US forces depart and hand over security control completely to the Iraqis".
US troop reductions by the end of the year were possible but unlikely, the general said, arguing that the battle for Baghdad had priority.
Mr Patey warned against a quick withdrawal of troops, stressing that talk of an early exit from Iraq would weaken the position of coalition soldiers who remain.
Mr Blair played down the leak at his monthly press conference yesterday, saying the comments were in line with what the ambassador had been saying in public, and that it was imperative to "stay the course" in the battle with extremism.
"That's what we're doing, and however tough it is we will see it through," Mr Blair said. "And actually, if you read the whole of the telegram, that's precisely what William is saying."
British forces handed over Muthana province to Iraqi forces last month, the first of the country's 18 provinces to be transferred. In Basra, British commanders are planning a purge of mafia and militia elements in the police in what could be their last-ditch attempt to bring order to Iraq's Shia-dominated southern city.
Major General Richard Shirreff, who is taking over command of the multinational forces in southern Iraq, has made clear he intends to adopt a tougher approach.
British officers say Iraq is on a knife edge and have given the Iraqi government until the end of the year to impose its authority across the country.
They say they are frustrated by the failure of the Baghdad government and local politicians to enforce their writ in Basra, where Shia militia have infiltrated the police. While Iraqi ministers have suggested the British army has not done enough to reduce the presence of the Shia militia, British commanders counter that Iraq is in danger of developing a "dependency culture". They are pinning their hopes on building a new national Iraqi army, though without great optimism, and have described the rest of the year as crucial in deciding whether Iraq will survive as a unitary state.
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