[hermit22]

I was actually in Turkey the week before the election, so (at the risk of sounding like I'm boasting) I can give what could be a kind of 'on the ground' interpretation. Of course, I was only there for a week, and I'm not an expert on Turkish politics, but I did spend a lot of time hanging out with IR students who were more than willing to share their views on regional politics.

This election is, more than anything else, a referendum on the outgoing party, who presided over the worst Turkish recession since World War II. To frame this in relative terms, the exchange rate was 1.64 million Turkish lira / dollar. AKP has gone out of its way to try to disassociate itself from its pro-Islamic roots, and there is a lot of empathy for the party's leader, who seems to be picked on by the establishment.

AKP has also made efforts to not piss off the army. They are fully aware of the coup the army staged 5 years ago to remove the last Islamic faction from office. AKP has also promised to fully comply with the EU's demands in order to be considered for membership. The people I talked to were scared of AKP, but they did believe that the party wouldn't dare to touch any of Attaturk's secular reforms. I got the sensation that AKP would at least make the appearance of pushing Turkey into the EU in the hope that those reforms would stimulate the economy.

The scary part, though, is that because of the nature of the Turkish parliamentary system, only 2 parties made it into parliament - and AKP got a 2/3 majority. This gives them a blank check in amending the Constitution however they see fit. And then, according to the people I talked to in Ankara, many of who were the children of soldiers, the army would step in quickly.