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Outsiders watching the race right now should know that Santorum is running a ton of both positive and negative ads while the Casey campaign is doing nothing. The race has tightened as a result, which is the only way the Santorum campaign can manage, because running ads this early is not to convince voters but to make sure that the money spigots don't shut off too early. If the race is seen as unwinnable, nobody will donate to it.
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