Quote:
|
Originally Posted by JayMcGee
doesn't matter where it lands
|
So...that would be indisciminate, then.
It *does* matter where it lands, if it misses Tel Aviv, then it hasn't "reached the city". ..and with a CEP measured in miles, that's what will happen.
If there are any Zelzal-2s left intact in Lebanon (if there were any to begin with, and there's considerable dispute about that) they were probably what the cluster bombs were used on; anti-materiel/anti-armor is what they're best at. Assuming first that they did ever cross the border and second weren't destroyed by the IDF, they still aren't available to Hezbollah apparently because they're dual-keyed, and can only be launched on command from the Iranian crews (of whom there aren't any in Lebanon, right?). It's the most implausible "plausible deniability" I've ever seen...the old shell game again: Hezbollah "has" missles but can't launch them...but if they *are* launched Iran will blame Hezbollah.
The Iranians won't launch now because if they did manage to hit anywhere near Tel Aviv, they'd trigger exactly the responses they're trying to deter in the first place: massive Israeli response directly aganst military targets in Iran, very likely including strikes against their nuclear facilities.
To deter a strike against the nuke facilities until Iran has weapons ready to go (and nobody really knows exactly how long that will actually be, including the Iranians), the Iranians want to keep that pistol to the head of Israel...if they even still have any Zelzal-2s in Lebanon, which is doubtful at best.
So Hezbollah
doesn't have control of a weapon that would hit Tel Aviv...because if they did they'd use it. Which is why they're dual-keyed. It's not a matter of their intent, they just don't actually have the capability.
If North Korea manages to pull off a sucessful underground test of their design, I'd expect one or two of them to be covertly sold to Iran very quickly; NK needs the cash desparately and Iran has it. Iran's not dumb enough to buy warheads that have never been tested.
tw seems to think airports aren't military targets.
Stuff like this is why they are.