[Undertoad]

My expectation in post #15 has played out:

Green Party hopeful is out; win for Casey

The prospect of a three-way U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania appeared all but over yesterday as the state Supreme Court rebuffed Green Party Senate candidate Carl Romanelli's bid to get on the November ballot.

The ruling, in a one-sentence order, was good news for the Bob Casey campaign, which had feared that Mr. Romanelli's presence on the ballot would siphon votes from the Democrat. For the same reason, it was a blow to Sen. Rick Santorum and to the Republican donors who had funded the petition drive that sought to establish the Green hopeful's access to the November ballot.

State election law dictates that independent candidates for statewide office submit nominating petitions with a total number of signatures from registered voters equivalent to 2 percent of the votes cast for the top vote-getter in the most recent statewide election. The justices upheld a Commonwealth Court ruling that set a 67,000-vote threshold based on 2 percent of the votes cast for Mr. Casey in his 2004 race for state treasurer.

Mr. Romanelli's attorney, Lawrence Otter, argued that state elections officials should have used a 2005 judicial retention election for Justice Sandra Newman, a move that would have resulted in a signature requirement of approximately 15,000. The Green candidate had originally submitted nominating petitions, which he said, contained early 100,000 signatures.

After a review by state elections officials and litigation before Commonwealth Court, thousands of those signatures were ruled invalid, leaving him at least 9,000 short of the required total. Requirements for valid signatures are exacting under state law. Signatures collected must be from registered voters, and precisely match the data, such as address, recorded on state voter rolls.

100,000 signatures submitted, 58,000 found valid. That's a terrible rate. We used to hope for a 20% cushion.