Quote:
Originally Posted by Hippikos
Nah, just a quiet day in the Baghdad park...
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Not exactly. First some underlying facts. Maliki's government is (has been) a US puppet government. It cannot defend itself, does not have popular support, and would fall immediately if Americans left. Smart Americans are suggesting after 4 years, we should have left years ago. And so Maliki, et al have been doing something for the past few months that otherwise would never happen.
Maliki, et al has been negotiating with various insurgent leaders - secretly. Suddenly they realize that either they concede to reality or hang with Saddam. Sistani has (apparently) ordered Shia insurgent groups to rein in their war on Sunnis (and among themselves). Sadr, et al apparently have complied where control exists over their people.
What we have been seeing are the 'uncontrolled' still fighting - and pulling back.
What are details? We have not a clue. All this has been ongoing for months now - Americans having been cut out of the process. A process created only because Americans have finally gotten serious about leaving what cannot be won. Iraqis have two choices. Either massacre each other by expanding the civil war, or negotiating. That means even Maliki's hard line has softened since the Iraqi army and police are all but toothless. Maliki is only there because of 140,000 Americans. Suddenly reality has struck him - and many other major insurgent groups.
Well not all will comply. Watch what happens. If we did as the Iraq Study Group recommends, then the Iraqis may just decided to go the way of Lebanon - if we get lucky. That can only happen if we leave them to 'sink or swim' - not completely leave but move out as the ISG recommended.
A major and ongoing event from months ago may have just leaked out this week. Time to watch major players - especially Sistani.