[tw]

Originally Posted by Aliantha

tw...this hydrogen thing they're testing here is simply a test. The link I shared with you is not a scientific document. It's a document for dummies. It's not really meant to prove or disprove anything. We can all see that. It was just something to give people a little bit of an idea what the go is.

The presentation is intended to deceive - classic propaganda with no numbers. It provides near zero useful information - unless we go vindictively after its numbers. Anything that does not provide numerous numbers is typically promoting junk science reasoning - propaganda - fiction that only an english major could love.

The only way it can 'give people ... what the go is' is by providing basic numbers. it even ignores the massive carbon footprint to make hydrogen.

bluesdave represented the test as "working OK". No, it was not. The test demonstrated how bad hydrogen is as a fuel - confirming what underlying theories also suggest.

Moving on to the part you have not grasped. It was not just that telephone, transistors, etc would get cheaper with innovation (notice I said 'innovation' and not 'mass production'). Innovation could make mass production cheaper only because both the theory and experimental evidence suggested it could happen. Those technologies did not automatically get cheaper only due to 'economies of scale' - mass production. Innovation must be possible so that scale can create economies.

The problem with hydrogen as a fuel: even the theoretical numbers says those costs will not sufficiently decrease. Again, we cannot violate fundamental rules of thermodynamics that also involve conservation of energy.

The test was not "working OK". Test even violates a necessary condition - doing more with less. Hydrogen obviously is not a viable fuel. If you think otherwise, then what is the fundamental science theory that suggests otherwise? Where can innovation create such massive breathroughs. If you cannot say, then why do you assume 'economies of scale' will exist?

It is why we teach everyone science in school. So that you might understand what is necessary for achievement. Instead you are only promoting what junk science MBAs, lawyers and communication majors do. Somehow this magic idea called 'economies of scale' (also called mass production) will automatically reduce costs? Why does cost reduction not happen with drug prices? With age, a drug's price should decrease. Why do drug prices only increase even when production increases? Because 'economies of scale' is junk science reasoning by those who could not bother to first learn science details.

Do you really believe these myths about 'economies of scale'? If such existed, then GM automobiles would be the least expensive to build. GM cars are the most expensive cars - cost even more than a comparative Mercedes products. Your assumptions about 'economies of scale' are also why American steel manufacturers have costs sometimes double those of foreign manufacturers. Making a blast furnace bigger lowered costs? Guess what? No. Why are American steel manufacturers so inefficient? They also used your 'economies of scale' rationalization in places such as Sparrow Point, Fairless Hills, and Bethlehem. Now they run to government for protection.

The science does not work. That color glossy presentation is to intentionally deceive the naive. It was written so that people who judge by 'feel' will see a hydrogen future. Take the few numbers from that 'feel good' presentation. Then 'hydrogen as a fuel' experiment only confirms what the theory also says. It's just not viable.

Let's see. Suppose we make hydrogen from a petroleum based energy source at $80 per MW-Hr. By the time those 10 units of energy to make, package, and transport that energy to a car, then only 2 units remain. So now the hydrogen is $400 per MW-Hr. And these numbers assume 100% perfect 'economies of scale'. What were those costs for Sydney? About $5500 per MW-Hr. OK. With economies of scale, then the price might decrease 10 times. Even with a price reduction of ten times due to mythical 'economies of scale', prices still remain multiple times higher.

Notice the difference. I was not enthralled by a mythical 'economies of scale'. I used fundamental science concepts to optimize prices - and it still cost too much - does not increase efficiencies - does not 'do more from less'.

What have I demonstrated here? That assumptions of ‘economies of scale’ rather than learning the underlying science only results in junk science conclusions. You have zero reason to believe hydrogen as a fuel is viable. And yet you justified it by doing what junk science did to create the GM automobile. Due to ‘economies of scale’ reasoning, GM products are now the most expensive to build. ‘Economies of scale’ will not change the science of hydrogen.