about technology, there are hard problems and there are easy ones. (first of all i cant predict the future im just telling my perception) Notice most of these false predictions have to do with information technology. I think information is one of the more tractable problems. i wont be surprised by anything that comes out in the next few years as far as that goes, better and better virtual reality, cheaper faster computers, even real AI. Now what about all those technologies that were predicted in the 50's that we would have? Flying cars, moon bases, traveling around the solar system in space ships, energy to cheap to meter. Fusion energy has been "just around the corner" for the past 50 years. Just because someone says it cant be done does not mean that science will find a way to do it around the corner. Thats way to optimistic. So what i am saying is that with energy i think we are really up against the limits dictated by the nature of things. I was promoting biofule here, and thats an option but whats hard to realize is the shear scale of our energy use. It is beyond what you can grasp in an intuitive manner. I was doing more research on biofuls and at a site supporting biofuel it was showing how even if we plant all our cropland with switch grass and assuming our best idea of what we can do in processing that once the technology is mature we can still only offset 25% of our gasoline use!!! Now that came as a surprise to me. (cant find the site i saw that at but this one gives similar numbers 30% by 2050) But this is WITH drastic efficiency measures such as reducing urban sprawl and congestion and mandating 50 MPG cars!!!
biofuel
Quote:
Since land scarcity will clearly be an issue, some analysts argue that any biofuel strategy will need to be accompanied by a strong dose of conservation. According to "Growing Energy," a 2004 Natural Resources Defense Council report on biofuels, the U.S. is on track to consume 290 billion gallons of gasoline for transportation in 2050. By boosting fuel efficiencies and reigning in urban sprawl, the report says, we could feasibly cut this figure down to 108 billion gallons.
So here's where the mathematics of biomass come in. NRDC has forecasted that the number of gallons of ethanol produced per ton of dry switchgrass could jump from 50 gallons to 117 gallons by 2050. Crop experts say that current averages of five dry tons of grass per acre could easily double under a standard breeding program. These combined boosts in efficiency mean that enough switchgrass could be grown on a reasonable chunk of land to produce 165 billion gallons of ethanol by 2050. And because one gallon of ethanol contains 66 percent of the energy content of gasoline, 165 billion gallons of ethanol equates to -- you guessed it -- 108 billion gallons of gasoline.
It's an optimistic scenario, to be sure. On the efficiency side, it demands radical cuts in fuel usage. On the ethanol side, it requires an infrastructure of pipelines and pumps specially designed to transport the hygroscopic fluid.
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Im starting to think maybe even biofuel is not going to do much. I think electric cars are better than most people think. The
Tesla car looks good. Electric car doubters check that out and tell me what you think?
maybe the only way to really get serious about global warming is to build 100's of nuclear fuel plants now? I dont support nuclear but right now it looks like the only real solution and i think we are better with nuclear than the CO2.