Quote:
Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45
Sadly, this is what may very well happen. Better than genocide and Somalia-like anarchy though.
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A benchmark for any accomplishment is Kurdistan. Until the rest of Iraq gets tired of killing one another, then nothing will change there. Violence is even routine in Basra. The only viable challenge is to create an Iraq that does not spread violence into Kurdistan.
This is not just about Sunni and Shia attacks on Kurds. There is the ongoing problem of Kurd and Turk violence across those borders. And Kurdish violence in Iran. To avoid such violence means that Kurdistan, so independent as to fly its own flag, still remain part of Iraq.
It's just not viable to wish the rest of Iraq will be peaceful even in five years. Even the electric grid is now breaking about into fiefdoms defined by the many maybe one hundred different adversaries that some foolishly want to call Al Qaeda. As a result, Baghdad now only gets 2 to 6 hours of electricity every day as outlying areas horde electricity rather than share it with Baghdad.
This is not a country that can be measured in peace. The question is how much routine violence will be acceptable AND how does a US Military that entrenched itself (with intent to have permanent bases) now withdrawal – and without letting violence expand into Kurdistan.
The Iraq Study Group had our only viable plan. The question is now whether that is still possible. Back then, violence in Basra was not routine. So far, we have been lucky. Kirkuk has not become another hotbed of overt violence, yet.