Quote:
Originally Posted by ZenGum
TW, I think it is more significant than you allow, in two ways.
Firstly, it deals considerable damage to the prestige of the central Iraqi government, emphasizing that not only can they not control the Kurds within their borders, they cannot prevent foreign nations from encroaching over their borders. ...
The second point is that it sets a precedent for an increased level of meddling in Iraq by regional powers - Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey.
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I do not disagree with those trends (and resulting stress). But the significance and 'status quo created reality' denials are only bad for Iraqis and the region in the long term. Those 'stresses' could only force Baghdad's 'powers that be' to acknowledge reality.
First, whereas a Turk invasion could be a stress on Iraq's government, the need to admit realities may just as easily be good.
Second, is this mythical idea that if we protect a puppet government, then it will get better. Reality is that the Iraqi people must come to a decision on their own - either negotiate or learn from overt civil war. America cannot impose or teach either. Hard realities (such as overt civil war) make solutions permanent (the people remember bad consequences). Any stress on Iraq's government created by a Turk invasion is stress that might force acknowledgement of both points. Denial in Baghdad is that massive. Missing is an honest and indisputable acknowledgement of reality created by the current American 'solution' - a sort of "don't worry; be happy" attitude.
Third, I don't believe any such stress will be significant. The current government is too busy playing political power games. Nothing that happens in Northern Iraq will have any relevance in Baghdad. Positioning for domestic power is the number one agenda. Turkey could do as Israel did in Lebanon; it would have near zero affect in Baghdad.
Other than Washington public statements, an invasion would have little consequences there either. Washington may even spin it into "Turkey has joined the coalition to liberate Iraq from the evil axis of evil empire".
When applying a weighted average to facts, a Turk invasion of PKK strongholds would be more of a deja vue event. Double redundant? Sorta the point due to so many facts either over emphasized or hyped into lies by political agendas.
Turkey should invade because no one wants to stop it, because the consequences are trivial, because smaller operations have always been ongoing, and because Turkey has been so significantly harmed. Even the few news reports are more due to insignificance of the event.