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Originally Posted by deadbeater
If only the US did the same to Iraq, no unnecessary war.
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We did that to Iraq. Saddam's hold on his government was so tenuous that Operation Desert Fox in 1998 could have been enough to topple his regime. Same financial misery helped make S Africa's apartheid government unstable and made rejection of apartheid (the transition) so much easier and faster. Get rid of some silly laws and sudden things get drastically better?
We know from post invasion interviews that Saddam was fully involved only in maintaining his power. His military was diminishing quickly as was his hold on Iraq. Saddam was making financial deals with enemies everywhere just to stay in power. Sanctions were working. Operation Desert Fox, according to CIA analysts, easily could have been the feather that finished him off. CIA did not realize, until post invasion, how weak Saddam really was due to sanctions.
Instead we chose to use 'big dic' thinking as a solution. Look where that got us.
When was Castro must at risk? When we ignored him. What restored Castro’s popularity? Every time America made military threats. Well, Castro’s brother has just issued a major decree. It is now legal to buy can openers and air conditioners in Cuba. When the Castro regime falls, it will fall hard and final because of those financial strains. Cuba will endorse capitalism probably with a flair and vigor that exceeds end of the Cold War when financial restrains are removed. Change probably will be more dynamic that what happened in Eastern Europe.
Financial sanctions are quite effective. However some of those most important effects are only realized during the transistion. Those sanctions make it impossible for a falling government to recover - a concept called hysteresis.