Kudos! I believe you've nailed it.
I've had people tell me they don't vote because their vote doesn't make any difference. When I point out Florida and other even closer examples, they often admit to not really digging into the issues. I tell them to just pick out the main points and make their decision on them. Even if you get it wrong, at least a good turnout
may convince the pols that we are watching what they do.