Wow! That's amazing! I think you're right.
I think we need to do some testing to find out:
here we have a photo of both the painting in question (left) and a young Dubya (middle).
If we desaturate the painting, and take the picture of Bush, and overlay it with a 50% alpha blend, we can see that they match up quite well. If the picture of young George was better (if he were facing straight foreward and wasn't smiling) then I am sure that it would match up.