I do not have any online links, no. What I have is this:
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The California Legislature commissioned the University of California's Medical Investigation of Neurodevelopmental Disorders (MIND) Institute in Sacramento to study the possible causes of the rise in the numbers of reported cases of autism in California.
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In cohort #1, 88% met the current criteria for autism compared to 89% for cohort #2. There was no meaningful change in the CDER or ADI-R criteria over the intervening decade. Their conclusion: "There is no evidence that a loosening in diagnostic criteria has contributed to the increased number of autistic clients served by the Regional Centers."
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They found that some children in the mental retardation group did in fact meet the DSM-IV criteria for autism. There were 18% in Cohort #1 and 19% in Cohort #2. Since both cohorts had similar numbers, misclassification could not explain the rise.
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Their final conclusion was: "Without evidence for an artificial increase in autism cases, we conclude that some, if not all, of the observed increase represents a true increase in cases of autism in California, and the number of cases presenting to the Regional Center system is not an overestimation of the number of children with autism in California."
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Finally, in 2004, the CDC published an autism "ALARM," acknowledging that the current rate of ASD in the US was one in 166. They also noted that a developmental disability and/or behavior problem was being diagnosed in one child out of every six.
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No way to know how many are misdiagnosed, but if only 1 in 166 is being given the actual autism label, when that many are being diagnosed with other things, I'd say it's pretty likely the autistic kids actually have autism.
You get one guess where I copied those quotes from.