The Cellar - View Single Post

Kaliayev · 05-31-2009, 09:22 AM

North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.

Its a well set pattern: the DPRK wants something. Talks are stalled, or no-one is paying attention, because, like Britain's Got Talent is nearing the season finale.

So North Korea fires a missile over Japan. Suddenly, everyone goes "WTF?", even though South Korean and Japanese sources knew this was months in the planning. Or they test a nuke and cause some rumbling in Seoul.

The UNSC convenes, and decides to slap on some punishments to the DPRK, and restart the Six Nations talks. In the course of the talks, eventually, the North Korean greivance du jour becomes obvious (usually its frozen assets. They can usually lean on China for fuel and food, since China does not want a collapsed state on its border). Agreements are made, conditions are set.

Conditions are broken, or promises are not kept. Talks break down. North Korea bides its time, and then decides to do something "crazy" again. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes. If one of them went off, it knows its existence, as a regime, is forfeit, since it could be easily traced back to them. Since so far, North Korea has been playing a very careful game of upping the stakes, this would be quite out of character for them. They know they can bluster and threaten, but as soon as a nuke goes off, China, Japan and the USA will be looking to scalp them. Which is why they stick to their bluffing in the furtherance of more concrete goals.

The main worry is that a missile will land where it is not supposed to, ie; on Japan instead of the sea on the other side. Given they're not exactly working with high technology here its a real risk. Equally, their nuclear weapons designs came from Pakistan, and one thing I do know about the Pakistani arsenal is that the detonation systems were never secured in the way most other nuclear arsenals are. Since North Korean defectors are usually political and not scientific, we don't know if they have secured the weapons properly or not. I would hope the paranoid nature of the regime would have meant this had happened, but its by no means a given. Since a power struggle is coming in a few years, between Kim's more westernized son and the military's generals, THAT is something to look out for.

05-31-2009, 09:22 AM	#69
Kaliayev Magnificent Bastard Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 216	North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes. Its a well set pattern: the DPRK wants something. Talks are stalled, or no-one is paying attention, because, like Britain's Got Talent is nearing the season finale. So North Korea fires a missile over Japan. Suddenly, everyone goes "WTF?", even though South Korean and Japanese sources knew this was months in the planning. Or they test a nuke and cause some rumbling in Seoul. The UNSC convenes, and decides to slap on some punishments to the DPRK, and restart the Six Nations talks. In the course of the talks, eventually, the North Korean greivance du jour becomes obvious (usually its frozen assets. They can usually lean on China for fuel and food, since China does not want a collapsed state on its border). Agreements are made, conditions are set. Conditions are broken, or promises are not kept. Talks break down. North Korea bides its time, and then decides to do something "crazy" again. Rinse, wash, repeat. Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes. If one of them went off, it knows its existence, as a regime, is forfeit, since it could be easily traced back to them. Since so far, North Korea has been playing a very careful game of upping the stakes, this would be quite out of character for them. They know they can bluster and threaten, but as soon as a nuke goes off, China, Japan and the USA will be looking to scalp them. Which is why they stick to their bluffing in the furtherance of more concrete goals. The main worry is that a missile will land where it is not supposed to, ie; on Japan instead of the sea on the other side. Given they're not exactly working with high technology here its a real risk. Equally, their nuclear weapons designs came from Pakistan, and one thing I do know about the Pakistani arsenal is that the detonation systems were never secured in the way most other nuclear arsenals are. Since North Korean defectors are usually political and not scientific, we don't know if they have secured the weapons properly or not. I would hope the paranoid nature of the regime would have meant this had happened, but its by no means a given. Since a power struggle is coming in a few years, between Kim's more westernized son and the military's generals, THAT is something to look out for.