[ZenGum]

As Obama was pondering his decision, I was also trying to think what the heck to do there.

"Victory" as I see it is when all the foreign troops have gone home AND a couple of other conditions are met.

The only really important thing we want from Afghanistan is that they not allow terrorist organisations to use it as a base. It would also be good if they could cut down heroin production. As a preference, I do want that Afghan civilians have the basic set of human rights respected, but I'm not willing to bleed indefinitely to secure that. Democracy would be nice but it would take generational change and we just aren't interested in that kind of investment, and there are better things to use those resources on.

The best I could think of was to let Karzai run the show as he likes, pull out, and make sure they know we aren't returning. We should do this slowly and with notice so the Kabul government (for want of a better word) can prepare to take full responsibility. After that it is up to them.

Basically, we shout "Hey, Karzai! Catch!" and throw him the ball. I think this is the only thing that has much chance of achieving victory as I set it.

I also expect that before we even leave Karzai will be showing (more) signs of corruption, brutality, political repression etc. While I expect to dislike this, I am not willing to invade or keep occupying Afghanistan to prevent it.

...but, as Bruce points out ... right next door to Pakistan. Hmmm.