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Old 02-11-2012, 08:35 AM   #386
Undertoad
Radical Centrist
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cottage of Prussia
Posts: 31,423
Quote:
It just goes on and on... expect it!
Here is why this is not interesting: Vegas expects the "top three" not to win!

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

Top three: Packers 1 in 5, Saints 1/6, Patriots 1/7

Bottom 29: Steelers 1/12, Eagles 1/12... all the way down to Browns 1/100

Combining all these[1], Vegas sets the odds of the top three winning at about .50 and the odds of the bottom 29 at about 1.0

If you split $100 across the top 3 and another across the bottom 29... Vegas would expect a payout in the bottom 29.

Sparky... Vegas agrees with you!



[1]Combining odds in this way doesn't make too much sense because it is probability that you must actually combine. If probability was 1.0 it would be 100%, a certain outcome
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