Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Monkey
They're probably rational enough to do that, but not rational enough to avoid having their second or third weapon fall off a truck in the neighborhood of a non-state actor.
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I'm curious where that assumption comes from?
First, both Pakistan and NK are not going to give non-state actors nuclear technology so that quickly limits down the possibilities of where that nuke came from.
Second, which non-state actor would nuke Israel? Hamas? Hezbollah? The West Bank is around 20 miles away from Tel Aviv and Lebanon is maybe 50. If Israel goes, Lebanon, West Bank, and Gaza get radiation poisoning. Hamas wants to destroy the Israeli state, not the land. Hezbollah controls the southern Lebanon. Their problems would exponentially multiply if a nuke went off in Israel.
Honestly, I have great doubts that Iran as a whole will do anything that stupid. They want to become a regional power and are paranoid of being attacked, therefore a nuclear bomb is the perfect solution. What worries me is the chance that some rogue Revolutionary Guard soldier gets control of the bomb.