[ZenGum]

I've been thinking about this for some time. There is an idea that there is (often but not always) a "natural political map" of any given area, with national boundaries following cultural groups. Each group, having it's own language, bases its ideas on its own literature, and develops its own cultural values; and consequently various groups with differing values are best administered separately.

The situation in Central and Eastern Europe post WWII is a good example of national boundaries being imposed in tension with the natural map. In the 1990s, the natural map reasserted itself. The Czechs and Slovaks managed an amicable divorce, but Yugoslavia was too entangled and erupted in war.

The borders of the Middle East, defining countries like Jordan, Syria and Iraq, were drawn up in the peace conferences after WWI and WWII, and largely represent the global ambitions of the victorious powers at the various conferences. These countries are largely fictional. Most people in them do not, it seems, identify as being a citizen of that country, but as being a member of their own particular ethnic group. These countries were only held together by repressive governments. Now, after the removal of Saddam Hussein, the sectarian violence in Iraq, and the Arab spring, the idea that the government cannot be resisted has been undermined, and various groups are taking things into their own hands.

From here, I can see three ways to go. Firstly, the current governments effectively repress the mobs, and force the lid back on the simmering pot for a few more years, til it all erupts again.

Secondly, the whole Middle East could peacefully reorganise itself along a lines of European style centralised regulation, with a high degree of regional cultural independence. I consider this massively unlikely.

Thirdly, and most likely, the area slides into further ethnic and civil war, going through a particularly long and bloody Balkanisation. I would imagine this taking quite a few years to play out, lead to millions of deaths and huge refugee flows, and really screw up the worlds oil supply networks. Because of the oil, the world's great powers will want to push for option one, and keep deferring the problem.

At the end of the day, I imagine the Middle East with radically different borders. Not only would various Shi'ite groups and Sunni groups have their own countries, so too should the Kurds, the Palestinians, and many other minorities. Many of the Arab states, especially the Gulf Emirates, have (One Side) majority populations, with (Other Side) rulers. That has to change.

TL/DR: Like the Balkans, only longer, bigger, and with oil.