Quote:
Originally Posted by Griff
I hate to bring this up but didn't the ousted President come to power in a free and fair election?
|
Yes. But then it becomes far more complex and rather foggy.
Something big time clearly happened when Yanukovych or a subordinate authorized military attacks on demonstrators. This after a cease fire agreement had been signed - rather unexpectedly. Most damning were snipers killing 100 civilians. What happened after that is vague. Yanukovych apparently paniced about the same time much of his party in Parliament (Rada) moved to have him replaced. Was that constitutionally legal? That is uncertain. But even his own party turned on him.
He left maybe in panic while even throwing documents in the river hoping they would be destroyed. He tried to cross into Russia at one point and was turned back by Ukrainian border guards. Details remain uncertain.
So did he really panic? Or was he truly being removed by some power such as the military? Some in Russian leadership believe he did panic. Causing Putin to knee jerk react.
What is Putin's long game? Merkel, after a long conversation, seens to think he has somewhat lost it. IOW may be playing a hand he never planned on seeing. And is now responding without realizing the long term consequences. Maybe. But that and what Merkel has said would not be Putin.
At any rate, Yanukovych is out and an interrum government has taken power. The Ukrainian military is taking orders from this interrum government. And so far, most nations have recognized this government.
This is part of larger game that is even more complex. Clearly, Ukraine was part of Putin's plan to restore a Russian economic empire. A sort of Russian version of the EU. It is also no accident that EU and NATO expansion makes these Russian leaders nervous.
It does not help that McCain made a rather stupid and provocative comment. An anti-ballistic missile system planned for Poland and the Czech Republic was only for Iranian missiles. Promises were repeated that it was not to compromise Russian missiles. McCain has just said we need to reconsider these anti-missile installations to defend against Russian missiles. That only excites obvious Russian fears. Since McCain is from a political party that sees solutions in big guns and invasion.
Remember, nations such as Russia fear another wacko extremist administration like George Jr. Fears that the Tea Party will take power (justified fears) means other nations must have military options and buffer nations. Don't for one minute assume Putin does not fear an America lead by Tea Party wackos and witches. He clearly hears comments such as McCain's as an indication that we might again Pearl Harbor more nations. He has every right to worry and be distrustful. Even his own people have made claims to American diplomats that clearly were never true. An indication that they fear future administrations and must plan for same.
Russia also got away with invading and annexing part of Georgia in the summer of 2008 with virtually no response from the George Jr administration. Many in the EU actually blamed it, in part, on Georgia's president Saakashvili. Well, Russia is doing something similar in Ukraine. Since Ukraine, without warning, has suddenly selected to not become part of a Russian economic trading sphere. But this time, a response to Russian actions has been different. More variables.
This response clearly was not part of Putin's strategy. What happened in Ukraine was totally unexpected by everyone. And major power responses are tenuous. Putin probably blames Yanukovyck for panicing. Yanukovyck asked Pution to invade. However it is more likely additional and yet unreported events that happened to force Putin's hand.
Furthermore, various NATO and EU powers have contradictory responses. What happened is not clear. Objectives of all powers are not obvious. Comments from "not yet in power" extremists have only complicated long term strategies. And again, is Putin really KGB or simply protecting himself from Western powers who sometimes attack without justification?
The bottom line 'worse case' is a restoration of the Cold war because events are wagging so many dog's tails.
This much we know. Two decades of building trust have been destroyed. This started when American suddenly started unilaterally ignoring treaties in the 2000s. Fears further justified when NATO began expanding towards Russian borders.