Thread: Boxed in Korea.
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:45 PM   #1
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 10,793
Boxed in Korea.

Trump continues to lead American government and military leaders into circles. The chess play is obviously enjoying this game. Allies are confused and indecisive. Any strategy that might keep Russia honest is clearly in shambles. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management. I never thought anything could be worse than Nixon. We all know how wrong that assumption was.

So how did N Korea get so much technology so fast? They don't have a large, well educated population. What their 'only technicians' have is outside assistance. No way around that reality.

For over a decade, N Korea was stumbling about with atomic bombs that were massive and not very reliable. They had no rockets with power. They had no technology for a guidance system.

Suddenly they have a whole fleet of successful rocket motors. Suddenly a country that cannot even build aircraft suddenly have a guidance system that worked the first time. Suddenly they have atomic bombs that always work - no longer fizzle. And are small. How did this all happen in only a few years?

We know how N Korea got nuclear technology. Pakistan (Khan) gave it to them in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. (We then saw George Jr follow that by giving India materials also in violation of that treaty.)

They had bombs that were too large to launch and did not always work right. They made little progress for 10 years.

If Putin and playing chess, what would you do? Give N Korea that technology. Intelligence believes those rocket motors were pirated from Ukraine with cooperation of crime families. Who would have made that possible? A nation that has created chaos where those rockets are made. Then had them shipped via channels where shipments would not be detected. From Ukraine, across Russia, and directly into N Korea.

N Korea may have exploded a crude thermo-nuclear weapon. Only about five times more powerful than the Nagasaki atom bomb. But a technology that advanced should have taken something less than a decade to perfect in a scientifically advanced nation. N Koreans are not that well educated. So where does that technology come from? At what point do we discuss a most likely suspect - who only profits by that nuclear proliferation.

A superb chess game lets minor pieces tie up the opponent's heavy pieces. A minor piece (N Korea) now obstruct the King (US) and other heavy chess pieces.

What does the US do? Sanctions have been compromised by some unknown third party (Putin). A blockade would be military action unsupported by the many former-TPP nations that no longer have sufficient interest or trust in supporting America's 'all talk and no action'. They all remember (from example) that Trump routinely harms his counterparties for personal gain.

Does the US attack weapon sites? Only some are known. Many are already underground. Many launchers are mobile. But the greatest problem - any attack on N Korea is automatically an attack on China. These nations have a mutual defense treaty.

Worse, any attack on N Korea means massive destruction in Seoul. Furthermore, the US would have to implement a 6 month deployment equivalent to what was required in Desert Storm. And unlike Desert Storm, the world would not pay for it. Another massive destruction of American infrastructure, industries, and innovations would result - just like in Nam.

Exactly what a chess player wants. A minor piece puts the opponent into stalemate. And maybe makes adversarial all future relationships with another player - China. A perfect scenario to recreate a cold war with the 800 pound gorilla stuck and obstructed by too many other 300 and 600 pound gorillas. And successfully subverting decades of carefully crafted diplomatic relationship with all other East Asian nations. Even creating distrust in NATO.

Military option is fraught with disasters. Trump said all options on are on the table. So which ones are available? He has successfully subverted diplomacy. His constant contradicting tweets and press releases leave the entire American diplomatic corp in turmoil. And says to every counterparty (ally), "Pay no attention to what he promises. He constantly lies, back tracks, and leaves his friends hanging by the neck." Trump makes diplomacy impossible.

What other option? Did we send James Bond in? Face it. Every option is on the table because Trump had no options other than military attack. Even that option only remains on the table.

Worse, Trump cannot even draw a red line. He has no strategy to define a red line. He does not even have a strategic objective. His red line means the entire world would do nothing (completely contrary to what the entire world did in Syria).

Well, Trump's do-nothing strategy can only result in eventual war. So again, we are back to three requirement that must exist before any war can be victorious.

First: must be a smoking gun. So what would be a smoking gun? An attack on S Korea? Will not happen. Fatty 3 is prospering from victories by repeatedly tweaking Trump's nose. He will keep doing that while growing a nuclear arsenal that must be respected and feared. The two words that best describe what Fatty 3 wants.

Since Trump does nothing but bury options back on the table, then Fatty 3 is growing more powerful and confident. Eventually that power should become enough to separate S Koreans from their American allies. Does not matter if you don't agree; if that is wrong. That is what Fatty 3 will see. Anybody remember the same factors that eventually flowered into a European world war?

Opportunity for mistakes only increase with Trump's complete inaction and his constant creation of distrust among potential American allies. It makes a nuclear exchange a little more likely every year.

So Trump must invent a smoking gun (just like Gulf of Tonkin, Saddam's WMDs). Allie support will be tepid. S Koreans will question their American alliance. No smoking gun (or a fictional one) means a military defeat.

Second: a strategic objective must exist. Wasting $millions of cruise missiles on irrelevant airplanes in Syria does nothing because no strategic objective exists. That objective must be the conquest of N Korean or regime change. No other has been identified. Neither China nor Russia will stand for a massive American led army on their borders (MacArthur learned that the hard way). Blockades and military confrontations would be justified in the South China Sea. And so we would be looking at another potential world war. That strategic objective is flawed too many times over before it even begins.

So what is the strategic objective? Nuclear weapons cannot be taken out without troops on the ground. Air power is a myth that the military naive still believe despite the Battle of Britain, Vietnam, and Desert Storm. Invasion of N Korea is the only option - without diplomacy.

Since no strategic objective can be defined by an indecisive Trump, then no planning for the peace can exist. So the third requirement for victory also would not exist.

Without any one of three requirements, then an American military defeat would result.

What must happen to resolve this? A nuclear attack on Japan or America. Now a smoking gun exists. Now a strategic objective can exist. And Putin's chess game gets more successful. He already has Trump boxed in and indecisive. He has already demonstrated to East Asia that Trump cannot be trusted and routinely lies (ie the naval carrier task force deployed to Korea ... when it was sitting and not moving out of the Indian Ocean. Trump has no options, no long term strategy, and a desk covered by 'options' he does not understand and is too indecisive to implement. He has not even implemented any covert actions or sanctions. Why? That means making a decision.

Since Putin may have successfully boxed in Trump. Trump's ego has then frozen him into inaction. Exactly what a chess player like Putin does to an emotional and egotistical opponent.

What Trump is really saying? Every option remains glued to a table. He does not even know which table. So he keeps attacking and firing the help. Putin's chess game in Korea is winning. Why? Korea's sudden advancements in missiles, nuclear bombs, mobile launchers, guidance systems, and other accomplishments had to come from outside Korea. And most of it is recent now that Putin has the American president he wanted.
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