[ZenGum]

The talleban are making a move.

In my view, this upcoming run-off election is the last roll of the dice for Afghanistan to get a government with perceived legitimacy. Pretty unlikely at best, especially after the last shambles.

To try to improve the election, many international observers and administrators are being brought in.

So the talleban are directly attacking them. They just raided a UN-used housing compound, killing at least eight. If they can drive out the foreign observers, there is no way the election will be perceived as fair. The resulting government will lack perceived legitimacy, and will have minimal domestic or international support. The foreign forces may well wash their hands of the whole mess and leave. The resulting government will either collpase or lapse into loose control over tribal sub-governments; either way, the talleban get their safe-havens back, this campaign in the War-on-Terror will have failed.

The enemy may be whacko religious-extremist nut-jobs, but they are clever whacko religious-extremist nutjobs.