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Old 09-12-2018, 06:00 PM   #5
Undertoad
Radical Centrist
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cottage of Prussia
Posts: 31,423
Inspired by tw's original post, I went to find out what the actual science says about the number of Atlantic hurricanes and global warming.

The definitive look at this is presented by the Geographical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at NOAA: "Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results", revised June 2018.

The current science says:

Quote:
Originally Posted by NOAA Scientists
In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity. Reduced aerosol forcing since the 1970s probably contributed to the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since then, but the amount of contribution, relative to natural variability, remains uncertain.

TL;DR: top scientists agree, the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes cannot be attributed to global warming. It should theoretically increase them a bit, and may in the future. It's somewhat possible it may have changed how they operate in the Pacific. But so far, warming, in the Atlantic, no.

What? But the number of named tropical storms and hurricanes has increased!

Yes; and NOAA concludes, it's because we didn't notice them as much back in time. In the mid-60s, our ability to detect storms started to rise dramatically, when we worked out how to launch satellites to study the planet. Before that, a lot of storms were only found when ships at sea encountered them.

Are you saying AGW is a sham?!

No, I have earlier posted evidence of it. The satellites also find the warming.
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