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Originally Posted by tw
People whose information comes from honest sources know leading indicators say a recession apparently started at the the beginning of 2019 (as predicted at the end of 2018).
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Economists note that employment has stayed artificially higher since so many companies were trying to import and stock up on supplies from China before the "we want to create recession" tariffs. Masking the fact that previous tariffs had already done economic harm.
From the Economist of 24 Aug 2019:
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In recent weeks the humans and silicon brains at Google have registered an alarming rise in searches related to "recession". It is easily explained. As markets gyrate, talk in the press turns to the risk of a slump. Even so, the stories must leave some Googlers baffled. In July, after all, the American economy added some 164,000 jobs and retail sales kept climbing. ...
Today's confusion owes something to the world's odd recent economic history. The last global slump occurred amid an epic financial crisis. The one before that began nearly two decades ago accompanied, again, by the stockmarket crash. Between August 2000 and September 2001 [George Jrs tenure] the S&P 500 index fell by more than 30% and the NASDAQ by more than 60%. Now, by contrast, those indices are pretty much where they were a year ago. Most people cannot remember a recession not linked to financial chaos. But downturns can occur without market meltdowns.
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Stock market feel. When did the resulting economic calamity occur? Five years later it appeared in lagging indicators such as jobs.
Apparent are factors that says a downturn has started. While The Don is openly encouraging it to preach to his base - at the expense of this American economy. Lagging indicators (employment, retail sales) will not report this downturn for years. But leading indicator (ie gyrations in the stock market, inverted yield curves, and a new indicator - Google searches) demonstrate The Don has successfully started the downturn.
He raised tariffs on imported steel to protect American steel making jobs. And so US Steel shutdown blast furnaces in its Great Lakes and Gary IN plant in June. Then in Aug announced 200 layoffs for what may be up to six months. Yea, those tariffs really helped. As tariffs always do. They destroy jobs. But it sure makes wacko extremists so love Trump.