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The likelihood of it happening now is unknown. I'd say it's small, but I would be bullshitting you because I have no idea. But from what I understand (without reading any of your links) is that the increased solar radiation in some areas would make vast swaths of the planet uninhabitable. It would suck if it was someplace you lived. And it would suck if a billion people wanted to come to your hood because they were being fried at home.
But how likely is it? Beats me. I can't do anything about it anyway. Except maybe buy a sailboat and learn to sail so I can get to someplace safe without competing with a few hundred million other people who also want to get there.
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