I have no clue.
But here are what I consider to be the two main factors:
- How many voted for him only because they assumed he couldn't win, and expected their vote to just be a shot across the bow? Would they still want a direct hit? Similar to Brexit, I suspect the numbers would change if the voters knew up front he could win.
- There were some who thought he would calm down when out of campaign mode. Would they still vote for him, knowing that not only didn't he calm down; he filed for reelection on inauguration day, and is holding another campaign rally soon?
I suspect the Muslim ban is a net winner for him, for the reasons you give.
And this question could be revisited when when have an idea of what's up with the ACA. Though he would probably be able to let Congress take the blame for any problems there.