How long does the US have?

Clodfobble · 11-27-2007, 10:21 PM

I said 30-50, and I'm actually more on the 50 end of that range, because things always take more time than people think. Regardless, though, I agree with pierce--we're not going to implode, we'll just fade into obsolescence for awhile. Maybe we'll even have a comeback sometime even farther down the line. Standards of living will be reined in a bit (remember the days when families spent a long time actually saving up for a car because no one but no one would issue a car loan for more than three years?), but most people's daily lives will be relatively unaffected.

SteveDallas · 11-28-2007, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Maybe we'll even have a comeback sometime even farther down the line.

Maybe I've read too much Heinlein... but some days I'm convinced that the best chance of this would be the installation of a totalitarian government. The necessity to wake up and kick its ass would remind us why the USA is here in the first place and then we'd be good for another couple hundred years.

ZenGum · 11-28-2007, 09:13 AM

We should distinguish between relative decline and absolute decline.
Relative decline considers the USA's position relative to other countries. In this measure I think most people would agree that the US is in relative decline, if only because of the extreme growth that China is going through. The US getting tangled up in foreign wars speeds the process.

For the US to decline in absolute terms would be to decay in terms of morale and national self-belief, which is where Rome first turned rotten. Lookout talks about the sort of things that cause this: (apparently) pointless wars, (perceived) social injustice, apathy.

My assessment: the US is at present the preeminent nation but China is rapidly overhauling them. In 20 or 30 years China will have more strength, but perceptions of US strength will continue beyond this - especially in the US. I doubt that the US will ever fall to the state where Spain is now - truly a bit-player. More like (sorry Lookout) France or Britain are today - still having some international credibility, but not dominating as now.

Say ... we're all watching China - has anyone been keeping an eye on India? They've got a billion people, the bomb, and a growing economy too. They may end up being the second player/balance to China.

xoxoxoBruce · 11-28-2007, 10:14 AM

Does the central government of India have the where-with-all, to control the mounting strife that overpopulation causes, between the castes?

View Poll Results: How long before the US is an afterthought?
0-15 years	2	8.70%
16-30 years	5	21.74%
30 -50 years	10	43.48%
Pfffft, we're here forever fool!	6	26.09%
Voters: 23. You may not vote on this poll

11-28-2007, 09:13 AM	#3
ZenGum Doctor Wtf Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Badelaide, Baustralia Posts: 12,861	We should distinguish between relative decline and absolute decline. Relative decline considers the USA's position relative to other countries. In this measure I think most people would agree that the US is in relative decline, if only because of the extreme growth that China is going through. The US getting tangled up in foreign wars speeds the process. For the US to decline in absolute terms would be to decay in terms of morale and national self-belief, which is where Rome first turned rotten. Lookout talks about the sort of things that cause this: (apparently) pointless wars, (perceived) social injustice, apathy. My assessment: the US is at present the preeminent nation but China is rapidly overhauling them. In 20 or 30 years China will have more strength, but perceptions of US strength will continue beyond this - especially in the US. I doubt that the US will ever fall to the state where Spain is now - truly a bit-player. More like (sorry Lookout) France or Britain are today - still having some international credibility, but not dominating as now. Say ... we're all watching China - has anyone been keeping an eye on India? They've got a billion people, the bomb, and a growing economy too. They may end up being the second player/balance to China. __________________ Shut up and hug. MoreThanPretty, Nov 5, 2008. Just because I'm nominally polite, does not make me a pussy. Sundae Girl.

11-28-2007, 10:14 AM	#4
xoxoxoBruce The future is unwritten Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 71,105	Does the central government of India have the where-with-all, to control the mounting strife that overpopulation causes, between the castes? __________________ The descent of man ~ Nixon, Friedman, Reagan, Trump.

11-27-2007, 10:21 PM	#1
Clodfobble UNDER CONDITIONAL MITIGATION Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 20,012	I said 30-50, and I'm actually more on the 50 end of that range, because things always take more time than people think. Regardless, though, I agree with pierce--we're not going to implode, we'll just fade into obsolescence for awhile. Maybe we'll even have a comeback sometime even farther down the line. Standards of living will be reined in a bit (remember the days when families spent a long time actually saving up for a car because no one but no one would issue a car loan for more than three years?), but most people's daily lives will be relatively unaffected.

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