2012: What will happen? - Page 2

ZenGum · 12-23-2011, 07:10 PM

Just going from memory here, but...

1. Before each flip, there is a substantial weakening of the strength of the field. We've seen a few little dips lately, but nothing taking us anywhere near the ranges associated with a full flip.

2. I've become convinced that there is a significant problem with the way "due" is interpreted for things like this.
Recall our discussion in the Interesting Laws thread and how this touched on human heights which cluster closely around certain values, against river lengths which are distributed randomly, but seem to have more beginning with low first digits.

People with brains less awesome than Clodfobble's might like to read this http://www.dichotomistic.com/hierarchies_fractals.html for preparation, especially the bits about power laws and scale free networks.

Human heights are not scale free. Imagine getting hundreds of people to lie down head to toe in a straight line. Walk along, and see how regularly you get to a head. About every 1.6 to 1.9 metres, you'll get one. In extreme cases you might range from 0.4 up to maybe 2.3. So once you leave one head the next one is "due" in about 1.7 metres. After 1.8 we're expecting it soon, after 1.9 it should be here really soon, and so on.

Earthquakes, magnetic flips, the lengths of interglacial periods and many other things follow power laws - they range randomly over many orders of magnitude in size and/or interval. You might get ten magnetic flips in a million years, then none for the next nine million. They'd happen at an "average" of one per million years, but after, say, five million years, they'd seem terribly overdue. They're not, really. It's just that average intervals do not work well with phenomena like these.

The current interglacial is a good example. There have been (I think) about 35 interglacial periods since the current ice-age began about 3 or 4 million years ago. The *average* duration of interglacials is about 10 or 11 thousand years, but they are NOT clustered around a bell curve like human heights. Some were only a few hundred years, some were 40 thousand or more. Trying to predict the end of the current interglacial by looking at simple averages like this, well, we're "overdue" for it to end already.

Same with earthquakes. There are LOTS of fault lines that are allegedly "overdue". Same with volcanoes. This is what originally made me suspect there was something wrong with the idea of "due".

Oh and also, if the magnetic field does flip, we're screwed and the only thing we could do is stock up on tinned food and a hand powered can opener!

HungLikeJesus · 12-23-2011, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

...
Human heights are not scale free. Imagine getting hundreds of people to lie down head to toe in a straight line. Walk along, and see how regularly you get to a head. About every 1.6 to 1.9 metres, you'll get one. In extreme cases you might range from 0.4 up to maybe 2.3. So once you leave one head the next one is "due" in about 1.7 metres. After 1.8 we're expecting it soon, after 1.9 it should be here really soon, and so on.

...

OK, I'm trying to imagine this.

Are the women naked?

ZenGum · 12-23-2011, 09:48 PM

Dogs and cats - living together!

Quote:

Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus

OK, I'm trying to imagine this.

Are the women naked?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

Imagine getting hundreds of people to lie down head to toe in a straight line. Walk along, and see how regularly you get head. About every 1.6 to 1.9 metres, you'll get some.

Does that help?

Undertoad · 12-23-2011, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

Oh and also, if the magnetic field does flip, we're screwed and the only thing we could do is stock up on tinned food and a hand powered can opener!

no wai man everything works but you have to plug the plug in upside down

Lamplighter · 12-23-2011, 09:37 PM

A bunch of sayings will have to change...

He left his debts unpaid and went NORTH

He bats NORTH paw

We watched a repeat of NORTH Park last night

Way down NORTH in the land of cotton...

NORTH of the Mason-Dixon line

Two stars in the big dipper point to the SOUTH star.

SamIam · 12-23-2011, 09:38 PM

Everybody who was on a frequency of 50 hertz will have to change to 60 hertz, and the 60 hertz countries must go to 50. Don't even get me started on what its going to do to alternating versus direct current.

Trilby · 12-27-2011, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

Oh and also, if the magnetic field does flip, we're screwed and the only thing we could do is stock up on tinned food and a hand powered can opener!

Way ahead of you.

Also, I'll lay off the Guatemalan insanity peppers. Makes me see foxes who talk with Johnny Cash's voice.

I really like the idea of things changing along with going into a New Age (from Piscean to Aquarius which is supposed to spell more peaceful, harmonic times) I mean, I like that idea a LOT.

Do I think anything will really change?

No.

Sadly.

SSDD. Entropy will eventually win out - but not anytime soon.

Sundae · 01-01-2012, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brianna

Also, I'll lay off the Guatemalan insanity peppers. Makes me see foxes who talk with Johnny Cash's voice.

Enormously good.

DanaC · 01-01-2012, 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brianna

Way ahead of you.

Also, I'll lay off the Guatemalan insanity peppers. Makes me see foxes who talk with Johnny Cash's voice.

.

Not quite a Johnny Cash voice....but just to show I can find a relevant youtube clip for fucking anything:

Clodfobble · 12-23-2011, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

You might get ten magnetic flips in a million years, then none for the next nine million.

Alright, fine, make me interested enough to go do the research. :P

Turns out the most frequent you can get flips is, in fact, 10 in a million years; the shortest periods measured are .1 million years. But you could also get none for as long as not just nine million, but 50 million! And so far our current state of no-flips has lasted only 780,000 years. So that's not too bad.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

Before each flip, there is a substantial weakening of the strength of the field. We've seen a few little dips lately, but nothing taking us anywhere near the ranges associated with a full flip.

However, wiki says (with good citations) that we're not seeing "dips" recently as in "in and out again," but rather a single steady and accelerating shift of the north pole moving southward. Still not yet out of the range of normal, it's true, but it also hasn't turned back around yet either.

I don't think it's going to happen in 2012, granted, because it seems to take much longer than a year for the overall weakening effect to happen. But I also won't rule out the possibility that it's already begun. I was getting tired of all my electronics working properly anyway.

ZenGum · 12-24-2011, 12:06 AM

Again just from memory ...

That the magnetic north pole is drifting away from the true north pole is, as far as I know, not related to the complete field reversal we're talking about. I suppose it could be part of the process but I haven't seen anything about a connection. Did your research confirm this link?

Do you think we should all print out a hard copy of the cellar, just in case?

HungLikeJesus · 12-24-2011, 10:54 AM

Why doesn't somebody just go up to the North Pole and driven in a big spike to keep the thing from moving around?

Gravdigr · 12-24-2011, 04:37 PM

Well that would kill it.

Do you really want the children running around screaming "Jesus killed Santy Claus!!"?

Clodfobble · 12-24-2011, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

That the magnetic north pole is drifting away from the true north pole is, as far as I know, not related to the complete field reversal we're talking about. I suppose it could be part of the process but I haven't seen anything about a connection. Did your research confirm this link?

It did seem to be indicating that significant movement of the pole would be part of the general "instability" that happens before a switch. But what we're seeing right now doesn't classify as significant movement, just part of the general wiggling that happens all the time. So it's like, it would be connected, if it were connected.

infinite monkey · 12-24-2011, 04:46 PM

I'm not supposed to be here. The aliens were supposed to come get me.

Sigh...here is what will happen in 2012:

Love, loss, birth, death, pain, happiness, successes, failures, good times, bad times, inspiration and aspiration, hope...

Same things that have been happening since the beginning of mankind...only more relevant.

12-23-2011, 07:10 PM	#1
ZenGum Doctor Wtf Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Badelaide, Baustralia Posts: 12,861	Just going from memory here, but... 1. Before each flip, there is a substantial weakening of the strength of the field. We've seen a few little dips lately, but nothing taking us anywhere near the ranges associated with a full flip. 2. I've become convinced that there is a significant problem with the way "due" is interpreted for things like this. Recall our discussion in the Interesting Laws thread and how this touched on human heights which cluster closely around certain values, against river lengths which are distributed randomly, but seem to have more beginning with low first digits. People with brains less awesome than Clodfobble's might like to read this http://www.dichotomistic.com/hierarchies_fractals.html for preparation, especially the bits about power laws and scale free networks. Human heights are not scale free. Imagine getting hundreds of people to lie down head to toe in a straight line. Walk along, and see how regularly you get to a head. About every 1.6 to 1.9 metres, you'll get one. In extreme cases you might range from 0.4 up to maybe 2.3. So once you leave one head the next one is "due" in about 1.7 metres. After 1.8 we're expecting it soon, after 1.9 it should be here really soon, and so on. Earthquakes, magnetic flips, the lengths of interglacial periods and many other things follow power laws - they range randomly over many orders of magnitude in size and/or interval. You might get ten magnetic flips in a million years, then none for the next nine million. They'd happen at an "average" of one per million years, but after, say, five million years, they'd seem terribly overdue. They're not, really. It's just that average intervals do not work well with phenomena like these. The current interglacial is a good example. There have been (I think) about 35 interglacial periods since the current ice-age began about 3 or 4 million years ago. The average duration of interglacials is about 10 or 11 thousand years, but they are NOT clustered around a bell curve like human heights. Some were only a few hundred years, some were 40 thousand or more. Trying to predict the end of the current interglacial by looking at simple averages like this, well, we're "overdue" for it to end already. Same with earthquakes. There are LOTS of fault lines that are allegedly "overdue". Same with volcanoes. This is what originally made me suspect there was something wrong with the idea of "due". Oh and also, if the magnetic field does flip, we're screwed and the only thing we could do is stock up on tinned food and a hand powered can opener! __________________ Shut up and hug. MoreThanPretty, Nov 5, 2008. Just because I'm nominally polite, does not make me a pussy. Sundae Girl.

12-24-2011, 12:06 AM	#11
ZenGum Doctor Wtf Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Badelaide, Baustralia Posts: 12,861	Again just from memory ... That the magnetic north pole is drifting away from the true north pole is, as far as I know, not related to the complete field reversal we're talking about. I suppose it could be part of the process but I haven't seen anything about a connection. Did your research confirm this link? Do you think we should all print out a hard copy of the cellar, just in case? __________________ Shut up and hug. MoreThanPretty, Nov 5, 2008. Just because I'm nominally polite, does not make me a pussy. Sundae Girl.

12-24-2011, 10:54 AM	#12
HungLikeJesus Only looks like a disaster tourist Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: above 7,000 feet Posts: 7,208	Why doesn't somebody just go up to the North Pole and driven in a big spike to keep the thing from moving around? __________________ Keep Your Bodies Off My Lawn SteveDallas's Random Thread Picker.

12-24-2011, 04:37 PM	#13
Gravdigr The Un-Tuckian Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: South Central...KY that is Posts: 39,517	Well that would kill it. Do you really want the children running around screaming "Jesus killed Santy Claus!!"? __________________ These statements have not been evaluated by the FDA, EPA, FBI, DEA, CDC, or FDIC. These statements are not intended to diagnose, cause, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. If you feel you have been harmed/offended by, or, disagree with any of the above statements or images, please feel free to fuck right off.

12-23-2011, 09:37 PM	#5
Lamplighter Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Bottom lands of the Missoula floods Posts: 6,402	A bunch of sayings will have to change... He left his debts unpaid and went NORTH He bats NORTH paw We watched a repeat of NORTH Park last night Way down NORTH in the land of cotton... NORTH of the Mason-Dixon line Two stars in the big dipper point to the SOUTH star.

12-23-2011, 09:38 PM	#6
SamIam Registered User Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Not here Posts: 2,655	Everybody who was on a frequency of 50 hertz will have to change to 60 hertz, and the 60 hertz countries must go to 50. Don't even get me started on what its going to do to alternating versus direct current.

12-24-2011, 04:46 PM	#15
infinite monkey Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 13,002	I'm not supposed to be here. The aliens were supposed to come get me. Sigh...here is what will happen in 2012: Love, loss, birth, death, pain, happiness, successes, failures, good times, bad times, inspiration and aspiration, hope... Same things that have been happening since the beginning of mankind...only more relevant.

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