Pending Invasion

[tw]

Russia will move to occupy Crimea parts of Ukraine. Already doing what was done to invade Georgia. That action is all but inevitable. What is debateable is whether they will move on other parts of Ukraine. And whether they will withdrawl.

Of course, America has a problem. Criticism of Russia must ignore that the US did similar to Iraq. Mission Accomplished was as justified as what Russia did in Georgia and will probably do in Ukraine. Consequences exist because a US public loved a wacko extremist doing permentently damage America's reputation. An America that criticizes Putin must also acknowledge similar evils and lies performed by George Jr. No American president will do that.

[glatt]

I have a hard time caring much that Russian troops are digging in there. I mean, Russia used to own the Ukraine. And the Ukraine let Russia have bases there. And the are lots of pro-Russia people there who welcome the troops. There's a sovereignty issue, sure, but I don't see why I should be getting worked up over it.

And why is Obama making it a thing? Russia's going to ignore him. And then he'll look like an ineffectual fool. And the entire US will too. The most we can expect him to do is throw some sanctions at Russia.

Basically, who cares? Why should I care, other than it makes the US look a little bad to let Russia do what it wants?

It's notable that Putin waited until after the olympics so we can't boycott their olympics again.

[Griff]

It is getting ramped up regardless. Remember when we put our tanks back in Europe? Canada just pulled their ambassador... Both Putin and whoever is in charge of the US need enemies. We'd hate to stop building ineffectual warplanes.

[xoxoxoBruce]

It's not about fighting Russia, it's about fighting military budget cuts. Rattling sabers loosen purse strings.

[NoEdwonun]

It would be nice not to start a third world war.

[sexobon]

Oh, well done for a first post here. It gives me an idea for a new sitcom: Two and A Half World Wars.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by glatt

And why is Obama making it a thing? Russia's going to ignore him. And then he'll look like an ineffectual fool. And the entire US will too. The most we can expect him to do is throw some sanctions at Russia.

Agreed. It will be the Syria "red line" fiasco all over again.


My guess is that Putin is occupying Crimea in attempt to scare/destabilize the Ukrainian resistance movement. Putin feels Ukraine is Russia's territory so them turning towards Europe is a strategic blow to Russia. Weaken it now so it can be destroyed in the long run.

[tw]

Originally Posted by glatt

There's a sovereignty issue, sure, but I don't see why I should be getting worked up over it.

This is how WWII, the Cold War, Korean war and Desert Storm started.

Fundamental to principles of war are conditioner that justify unrestained or escalating war. Invading and taking land justifies war, massive deaths, and the involvement of other nations. Call it a slipperly slope or steps toward Armagedon. But when a major and nuclear power unilaterally attacks another nation - violates territorial integrity - with but a veil of truth, then it affects virtually every nation in the world.

Kuwait was a perfect example.

It should concern you greatly.

ISS is constructed so that Russia can disconnect their module leaving the rest to crash and burn. It was constructed that way intentionally with situations like this in mind. But one of so many examples why Ukraine can have further consequences.

Time to avert another Cold War is right now in situations such as this.

[sexobon]

Originally Posted by glatt

... I don't see why I should be getting worked up over it. ...

It's supposed to take your mind off that pettily NSA stuff.

[xoxoxoBruce]

So Putin is running amok in west Europe/east Asia and there isn't much anybody can do about it.
Obama warning of sanctions sounds like, get-off-my-lawn, shouted from the porch.
But here's the first something I've heard that made me say, Hmm, maybe.

The tool is the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the 700-million-barrel underground cache of crude oil waiting in Texas and Louisiana for a rainy day (see chart below). In an overnight note to clients, Verleger argues that if the US were to ship just 500,000 barrels a day of oil onto the market, it would drive down prices by about $10 a barrel and cost Russia about $40 billion in annual sales. The US could keep doing this for years, he says. “[Russia's] GDP might drop 4%, which would certainly count as a ‘consequence,’” he says. Half would come from lower oil prices and half from gas sales, whose prices Russia indexes to oil.

[Griff]

I hate to bring this up but didn't the ousted President come to power in a free and fair election? I'm no fan of democracy but I thought that was a biggie for our government types.

[Sundae]

Don't under-estimate the problem of land borders in many places in mainland Europe.
We're not even immune to it on our little island(s) let alone across huge land masses.
The citizens of the Crimea vote in the Ukraine election, but are outnumbered. They speak Russian and identify with Russia. They feel Russian.

Look at the borders of even well established, secure democratic countries in Europe and you will see that cultures and languages blend close to the border. And borders have shifted in these areas for centuries.

Add recent political and economic instability into the mix and you can see why it's not been a stable region for decades.

It's kinda like when "we" carved up Africa according to Western politics and claims, somehow not taking into account tribal lands and sensibilities. Result? Civil war, death, power grabbing and a bit more death. Some of which may have happened anyway, but drawing arbitrary lines on a map massively exacerbated things.

What can we do now? In the Crimea I mean. As little as possible. I hope.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by Griff

I hate to bring this up but didn't the ousted President come to power in a free and fair election? I'm no fan of democracy but I thought that was a biggie for our government types.

Yes, and then they had a free and fair national referendum to decide the country's future direction.

But Yanukovych wouldn't accept the peoples free and fair decision, saying fuck you, you're not the boss of me. Naturally the free and fair people got pissed and acted like a woman scorned until he got fed up and fled to Sugar Daddy Putin's love shack.

Sugar Daddy told him to go in the bedroom and chill until after the game(s), then he would strip down and bitchslaop all the bad people that made his babykins sad.

While the free and fair people were waiting for the game(s) to end, they pretended they were shocked to find out Yanukovych lived like a czar, and used the foreign media to display their righteous indignation to potential financiers that might help with that $50Billion nut.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Griff

I hate to bring this up but didn't the ousted President come to power in a free and fair election?

Yes. But then it becomes far more complex and rather foggy.

Something big time clearly happened when Yanukovych or a subordinate authorized military attacks on demonstrators. This after a cease fire agreement had been signed - rather unexpectedly. Most damning were snipers killing 100 civilians. What happened after that is vague. Yanukovych apparently paniced about the same time much of his party in Parliament (Rada) moved to have him replaced. Was that constitutionally legal? That is uncertain. But even his own party turned on him.

He left maybe in panic while even throwing documents in the river hoping they would be destroyed. He tried to cross into Russia at one point and was turned back by Ukrainian border guards. Details remain uncertain.

So did he really panic? Or was he truly being removed by some power such as the military? Some in Russian leadership believe he did panic. Causing Putin to knee jerk react.

What is Putin's long game? Merkel, after a long conversation, seens to think he has somewhat lost it. IOW may be playing a hand he never planned on seeing. And is now responding without realizing the long term consequences. Maybe. But that and what Merkel has said would not be Putin.

At any rate, Yanukovych is out and an interrum government has taken power. The Ukrainian military is taking orders from this interrum government. And so far, most nations have recognized this government.

This is part of larger game that is even more complex. Clearly, Ukraine was part of Putin's plan to restore a Russian economic empire. A sort of Russian version of the EU. It is also no accident that EU and NATO expansion makes these Russian leaders nervous.

It does not help that McCain made a rather stupid and provocative comment. An anti-ballistic missile system planned for Poland and the Czech Republic was only for Iranian missiles. Promises were repeated that it was not to compromise Russian missiles. McCain has just said we need to reconsider these anti-missile installations to defend against Russian missiles. That only excites obvious Russian fears. Since McCain is from a political party that sees solutions in big guns and invasion.

Remember, nations such as Russia fear another wacko extremist administration like George Jr. Fears that the Tea Party will take power (justified fears) means other nations must have military options and buffer nations. Don't for one minute assume Putin does not fear an America lead by Tea Party wackos and witches. He clearly hears comments such as McCain's as an indication that we might again Pearl Harbor more nations. He has every right to worry and be distrustful. Even his own people have made claims to American diplomats that clearly were never true. An indication that they fear future administrations and must plan for same.

Russia also got away with invading and annexing part of Georgia in the summer of 2008 with virtually no response from the George Jr administration. Many in the EU actually blamed it, in part, on Georgia's president Saakashvili. Well, Russia is doing something similar in Ukraine. Since Ukraine, without warning, has suddenly selected to not become part of a Russian economic trading sphere. But this time, a response to Russian actions has been different. More variables.

This response clearly was not part of Putin's strategy. What happened in Ukraine was totally unexpected by everyone. And major power responses are tenuous. Putin probably blames Yanukovyck for panicing. Yanukovyck asked Pution to invade. However it is more likely additional and yet unreported events that happened to force Putin's hand.

Furthermore, various NATO and EU powers have contradictory responses. What happened is not clear. Objectives of all powers are not obvious. Comments from "not yet in power" extremists have only complicated long term strategies. And again, is Putin really KGB or simply protecting himself from Western powers who sometimes attack without justification?

The bottom line 'worse case' is a restoration of the Cold war because events are wagging so many dog's tails.

This much we know. Two decades of building trust have been destroyed. This started when American suddenly started unilaterally ignoring treaties in the 2000s. Fears further justified when NATO began expanding towards Russian borders.

[sexobon]

Russia gives us Snowden, we give them Ukraine. It's practically a done deal.