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Old 09-05-2017, 09:45 PM   #1
tw
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Boxed in Korea.

Trump continues to lead American government and military leaders into circles. The chess play is obviously enjoying this game. Allies are confused and indecisive. Any strategy that might keep Russia honest is clearly in shambles. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management. I never thought anything could be worse than Nixon. We all know how wrong that assumption was.

So how did N Korea get so much technology so fast? They don't have a large, well educated population. What their 'only technicians' have is outside assistance. No way around that reality.

For over a decade, N Korea was stumbling about with atomic bombs that were massive and not very reliable. They had no rockets with power. They had no technology for a guidance system.

Suddenly they have a whole fleet of successful rocket motors. Suddenly a country that cannot even build aircraft suddenly have a guidance system that worked the first time. Suddenly they have atomic bombs that always work - no longer fizzle. And are small. How did this all happen in only a few years?

We know how N Korea got nuclear technology. Pakistan (Khan) gave it to them in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. (We then saw George Jr follow that by giving India materials also in violation of that treaty.)

They had bombs that were too large to launch and did not always work right. They made little progress for 10 years.

If Putin and playing chess, what would you do? Give N Korea that technology. Intelligence believes those rocket motors were pirated from Ukraine with cooperation of crime families. Who would have made that possible? A nation that has created chaos where those rockets are made. Then had them shipped via channels where shipments would not be detected. From Ukraine, across Russia, and directly into N Korea.

N Korea may have exploded a crude thermo-nuclear weapon. Only about five times more powerful than the Nagasaki atom bomb. But a technology that advanced should have taken something less than a decade to perfect in a scientifically advanced nation. N Koreans are not that well educated. So where does that technology come from? At what point do we discuss a most likely suspect - who only profits by that nuclear proliferation.

A superb chess game lets minor pieces tie up the opponent's heavy pieces. A minor piece (N Korea) now obstruct the King (US) and other heavy chess pieces.

What does the US do? Sanctions have been compromised by some unknown third party (Putin). A blockade would be military action unsupported by the many former-TPP nations that no longer have sufficient interest or trust in supporting America's 'all talk and no action'. They all remember (from example) that Trump routinely harms his counterparties for personal gain.

Does the US attack weapon sites? Only some are known. Many are already underground. Many launchers are mobile. But the greatest problem - any attack on N Korea is automatically an attack on China. These nations have a mutual defense treaty.

Worse, any attack on N Korea means massive destruction in Seoul. Furthermore, the US would have to implement a 6 month deployment equivalent to what was required in Desert Storm. And unlike Desert Storm, the world would not pay for it. Another massive destruction of American infrastructure, industries, and innovations would result - just like in Nam.

Exactly what a chess player wants. A minor piece puts the opponent into stalemate. And maybe makes adversarial all future relationships with another player - China. A perfect scenario to recreate a cold war with the 800 pound gorilla stuck and obstructed by too many other 300 and 600 pound gorillas. And successfully subverting decades of carefully crafted diplomatic relationship with all other East Asian nations. Even creating distrust in NATO.

Military option is fraught with disasters. Trump said all options on are on the table. So which ones are available? He has successfully subverted diplomacy. His constant contradicting tweets and press releases leave the entire American diplomatic corp in turmoil. And says to every counterparty (ally), "Pay no attention to what he promises. He constantly lies, back tracks, and leaves his friends hanging by the neck." Trump makes diplomacy impossible.

What other option? Did we send James Bond in? Face it. Every option is on the table because Trump had no options other than military attack. Even that option only remains on the table.

Worse, Trump cannot even draw a red line. He has no strategy to define a red line. He does not even have a strategic objective. His red line means the entire world would do nothing (completely contrary to what the entire world did in Syria).

Well, Trump's do-nothing strategy can only result in eventual war. So again, we are back to three requirement that must exist before any war can be victorious.

First: must be a smoking gun. So what would be a smoking gun? An attack on S Korea? Will not happen. Fatty 3 is prospering from victories by repeatedly tweaking Trump's nose. He will keep doing that while growing a nuclear arsenal that must be respected and feared. The two words that best describe what Fatty 3 wants.

Since Trump does nothing but bury options back on the table, then Fatty 3 is growing more powerful and confident. Eventually that power should become enough to separate S Koreans from their American allies. Does not matter if you don't agree; if that is wrong. That is what Fatty 3 will see. Anybody remember the same factors that eventually flowered into a European world war?

Opportunity for mistakes only increase with Trump's complete inaction and his constant creation of distrust among potential American allies. It makes a nuclear exchange a little more likely every year.

So Trump must invent a smoking gun (just like Gulf of Tonkin, Saddam's WMDs). Allie support will be tepid. S Koreans will question their American alliance. No smoking gun (or a fictional one) means a military defeat.

Second: a strategic objective must exist. Wasting $millions of cruise missiles on irrelevant airplanes in Syria does nothing because no strategic objective exists. That objective must be the conquest of N Korean or regime change. No other has been identified. Neither China nor Russia will stand for a massive American led army on their borders (MacArthur learned that the hard way). Blockades and military confrontations would be justified in the South China Sea. And so we would be looking at another potential world war. That strategic objective is flawed too many times over before it even begins.

So what is the strategic objective? Nuclear weapons cannot be taken out without troops on the ground. Air power is a myth that the military naive still believe despite the Battle of Britain, Vietnam, and Desert Storm. Invasion of N Korea is the only option - without diplomacy.

Since no strategic objective can be defined by an indecisive Trump, then no planning for the peace can exist. So the third requirement for victory also would not exist.

Without any one of three requirements, then an American military defeat would result.

What must happen to resolve this? A nuclear attack on Japan or America. Now a smoking gun exists. Now a strategic objective can exist. And Putin's chess game gets more successful. He already has Trump boxed in and indecisive. He has already demonstrated to East Asia that Trump cannot be trusted and routinely lies (ie the naval carrier task force deployed to Korea ... when it was sitting and not moving out of the Indian Ocean. Trump has no options, no long term strategy, and a desk covered by 'options' he does not understand and is too indecisive to implement. He has not even implemented any covert actions or sanctions. Why? That means making a decision.

Since Putin may have successfully boxed in Trump. Trump's ego has then frozen him into inaction. Exactly what a chess player like Putin does to an emotional and egotistical opponent.

What Trump is really saying? Every option remains glued to a table. He does not even know which table. So he keeps attacking and firing the help. Putin's chess game in Korea is winning. Why? Korea's sudden advancements in missiles, nuclear bombs, mobile launchers, guidance systems, and other accomplishments had to come from outside Korea. And most of it is recent now that Putin has the American president he wanted.
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Old 09-05-2017, 11:33 PM   #2
xoxoxoBruce
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No problem, Trump resigns and blames the mess on Pence.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:37 AM   #3
tw
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce View Post
No problem, Trump resigns and blames the mess on Pence.
How curious. That is exactly what he did in Atlantic City and in so many other Trump labeled operations.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:54 AM   #4
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It's his signature move.
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:48 PM   #5
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*Boxed-in Korea
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There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there
it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your
expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:50 PM   #6
Flint
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce View Post
It's his signature move.
Yep. Look at the main drive of his messaging--assigning blame and setting up others for future blame assignment.
__________________
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There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there
it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your
expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever
gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio
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Old 09-06-2017, 11:09 PM   #7
sexobon
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I hope Trump waits until the International Space Station is ready to pass over North Korea before he nukes them; so, we can watch it live on the Earth Viewing system.
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Old 09-15-2017, 04:08 PM   #8
Flint
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce View Post
It's his signature move.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flint View Post
Yep. Look at the main drive of his messaging--assigning blame and setting up others for future blame assignment.
Hillary must be taking notes. A whole book --600 pages of finger-pointing!
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There's a level of facility that everyone needs to accomplish, and from there
it's a matter of deciding for yourself how important ultra-facility is to your
expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever
gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio
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Old 09-16-2017, 04:23 PM   #9
tw
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From the Economist of 9 Sept 2017:
Quote:
Astonishingly, President Donald Trump’s first reaction to the nuclear test was to lambast South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, for seeking to talk to North Korea, accusing his government on Twitter of “appeasement”. He [Trump] took almost 36 hours to telephone Mr Moon and then only after it had emerged that had asked aides to pull out of a decade old free trade deal with South Korea. Even if the economics were sound (they are not), this is an awful time to pick a fight [with South Korea].

Mr Kim would love to drive a wedge between America and its allies. … Put crudely, Mr Kim wants to open up the old cold war question of whether an American president would risk San Francisco, say, to defend Seoul. If the answer is no, Mr Kim will soon be able to keep America at bay with his nukes and threaten his neighbors with impunity. For Mr Trump to let this happen would be an unforgivable mistake.
It gets more interesting. Putin has the kind of president he needs. An emotional one without any grasp of reality. Whose primary objective is promoting himself (as he did after the Houston floods).

Putin’s chess game is play Trump for a fool. Not hard to do when Trump’s decades of history has been acting like a bombastic buffoon. N Korea did not suddenly develop all these weapons. So many avoid discussing this even though it (and other reactions) was obvious back in 2016 if Trump became president. America is clearly on the defensive because its president it that pathetic.

He said all options are still on the table. Guess what? He cannot even select one from that table. Trump is doing exactly what he has done all his life. Promote himself. Leave others to make decisions. Then lay blame on others (including allies) when his indecision and expressed confusion was the problem.

Again from the Economist:
Quote:
Hwasong 12 and 14 are powered by versions of a high performance Soviet missile engine known as RD-250 which the North has acquired by stealth. … North Korean could not have developed and manufactured such large rocket motors … outfits … producing this type of engine are Energomash in Russia and KB Yuzhnoye in Ukraine.

The latter has fallen on hard times … when Russian back separatists seized nearby parts of Ukraine. …

North Korea had been caught trying to procure missile parts from KB Yuzhnoye [when the Obama administration was successfully averting such disasters]. … North Korea may have now succeeded … in acquiring a “few dozen” RD-250 engines and transported them by train.
We know Putin feared forceful people such as Obama and Clinton. We know he likes and needs emotional and poorly educated leaders such as Trump. We now see a well executed Putin strategy at play. Did Putin implement it? Or did a knee jerk president simply make it possible and easier? Either is possible. Bottom line, a chess play like Putin is moving into position to say “Check”.

Putin’s possible strategy is obvious. Trump is no longer a leader of the free world. Angela Merkel is more likely that leader. Merkel successfully lead and parlayed Putin’s intimidations in Europe. Putin shifted to where Merkel has little influence and where America obviously undermined its influence and strategy. That destruction in East Asia starting with TPP.

Anyone knows from history that military alliances first start with economic ones. Anyone except extremists such as Trump who had no idea why the TPP was so essential to regional economic, political, and military stability.

Whether Putin selected it or the strategy fell in Putin’s lap, he has obviously trumped Trump in Korea. Leaving America scrambling to confront a pawn (N Korea) while the game board remains open for other adversaries and challengers.

The recent collision of another American destroyer demonstrates a severe problem. American navy hardware and officers are not getting maintenance, sufficient rest, and training due to constant threats from that pawn. N Korea suddenly this one year made advances that should have taken almost 20 years. That is no accident. That is what to expect now and probably constantly in the next four years – due to competence of this American president and the intelligence level of so many who supported (voted) for him.

Invariably, American education, infrastructure, social health, and economic growth will be harmed by a president who never created successful companies. And who prospered constantly at the expense of his counterparties (and allies). Like Nixon, Trump’s primary objective his himself; not the advancement of America. Meaning war for no purpose and to the detriment of America is likely.

Putin is clearly playing chess with a bombastic buffoon.

Last edited by tw; 09-16-2017 at 04:35 PM.
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Old 09-17-2017, 12:42 AM   #10
sexobon
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We'll build a wall between North Korea and South Korea
.
.
.
and make Mexico pay for it.
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Old 10-13-2017, 03:53 PM   #11
xoxoxoBruce
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Da Bomb...
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Old 10-26-2017, 05:15 PM   #12
tw
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Playing Trump for a fool is simply part of a larger picture. To understand the chess player, one must understand what he sees, why he concludes as he does, and what he considers greatest threats.

PBS Frontline on Wednesday (25 Oct 2017) aired one of their best documentaries: "Putin's Revenge, Part 1". So much can be explained even by events in Dresden as the Berlin Wall came tumbling down. And what Clinton (and later Yelsin) saw.

Harry Truman's watch saw the Cold War begin. We did so much to avert a second cold war. And then George Jr did so much damage. Not just with his bogus "Axis of Evil" speech. He even looked into Putin's eyes. And then Frontline shows even Condi Rice looking exasperated.

So much of what Putin is doing is obvious. Providing rocket motors to North Korea is a tiny part of his game. We are awaiting his next move - that can be anywhere on the board. We clealy have no strategy. We know Putin likes Republican presidents. They were so transparent and so easily contrived. Hilary, Kerry, Obama, and Clinton were tough on Putin.

Next week's Frontline will discuss Putin's latest chess moves. These Frontline episodes are a must watch event since another Cold War is all but inevitable. Especially since Trump is alienating so many potential and future allies.
Also avaiable at:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-revenge/
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