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Old 01-28-2018, 03:42 PM   #16
sexobon
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Having the best seat in the house to watch the end come.

I'm just here for the entertainment.
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Old 01-28-2018, 10:37 PM   #17
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Where would the safest place be, for, say, an asteroid strike? Tall mountain? What's the expectation?
The International Space Station I'd imagine. I heard Elvis is up there at the moment, hiding from the IRS.
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Old 01-28-2018, 10:41 PM   #18
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Old 01-28-2018, 11:32 PM   #19
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Old 01-29-2018, 07:42 AM   #20
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The International Space Station I'd imagine. I heard Elvis is up there at the moment, hiding from the IRS.
The ISS would be a slow death instead of a fast one on Earth. Not sure if they would burn up in the atmosphere first because a wiped out Houston isn't doing routine controlled burns to keep them in orbit, or if they would run out of food first. I suspect they would burn up first, but that's just a guess.
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Old 01-29-2018, 11:38 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Undertoad View Post
:| It is a statement about human behavior, not actually a logic or math problem to be solved.
But if it were reworded to apply to anything other than extinction of humanity, it wouldn't have such a spotless track record (and would require actual research to come up with the number).

There's also a human tendency to ignore or discount warnings.
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Old 01-29-2018, 11:41 AM   #22
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The ISS would be a slow death instead of a fast one on Earth. Not sure if they would burn up in the atmosphere first because a wiped out Houston isn't doing routine controlled burns to keep them in orbit, or if they would run out of food first. I suspect they would burn up first, but that's just a guess.
The book Seveneves provides an interesting, if wildly improbable, exploration of the premise of the ISS being a survivor of a global apocalypse.
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Old 01-29-2018, 11:47 AM   #23
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The book Seveneves provides an interesting, if wildly improbable, exploration of the premise of the ISS being a survivor of a global apocalypse.
Did you enjoy that book?
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Old 01-29-2018, 11:56 AM   #24
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But if it were reworded to apply to anything other than extinction of humanity, it wouldn't have such a spotless track record (and would require actual research to come up with the number).
:eyeroll:

Alrighty then.

The statement is 100% accurate to complete extinction;

And yet, that doesn't stop the many predictions of complete extinction;

Which, obviously, gives us a perspective on predictions that only apply to a smaller number of humans, or a smaller region of the world; those predictions are perhaps only almost entirely wrong but that can't be mathematically proven.

Quote:
There's also a human tendency to ignore or discount warnings.
:eyeroll:

Yes, whole point of the thread: it's a good idea to do exactly that, for all 100% apocalyptic warnings, and most of the rest as well.

Y2K: it wasn't necessarily going to kill ALL of us, capisce?
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:13 PM   #25
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Did you enjoy that book?
Part 1 was quite good, hard science fiction, like I expect from Stephenson. Part 2 was a wild change in direction, that felt like the pilot for a SF TV show - more Star Trek than 2001. I probably would have enjoyed it more if it weren't tied to the first half. But overall, I did enjoy it, and will look for the sequel it quite blatantly set itself up for.
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:18 PM   #26
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Y2K: it wasn't necessarily going to kill ALL of us, capisce?
Was the lesson you took from Y2K that all of the work that was done to prepare for it by upgrading out-of-date software, and testing important systems, was wasted?

Or that institutions would have spent the money to do all that naturally, even if they hadn't been warned?
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:38 PM   #27
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Well here we go, 780,000 years ago the earths magnetic field switched poles. 40,000 years ago it tried but snapped back. Meh, so the Boy Scouts will turn their compasses around, no big deal, right?

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The Earth’s magnetic field protects our planet from dangerous solar and cosmic rays, like a giant shield. As the poles switch places (or try to), that shield is weakened; scientists estimate that it could waste away to as little as a tenth of its usual force. The shield could be compromised for centuries while the poles move, allowing malevolent radiation closer to the surface of the planet for that whole time.
Oh, that sucks.
Quote:
Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, Boulder, one of the world’s experts on how cosmic radiation affects the Earth, fears that parts of the planet will become uninhabitable during a reversal.
I wonder if that includes sexobon's spot?
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The vast cyber-electric cocoon that has become the central processing system of modern civilization is in grave danger. Solar energetic particles can rip through the sensitive miniature electronics of the growing number of satellites circling the Earth, badly damaging them. The satellite timing systems that govern electric grids would be likely to fail. The grid’s transformers could be torched en masse. Because grids are so tightly coupled with each other, failure would race across the globe, causing a domino run of blackouts that could last for decades.
Oh no, watching netflix by candle light.
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No lights. No computers. No cellphones. Even flushing a toilet or filling a car’s gas tank would be impossible. And that’s just for starters.
The ultraviolet inhibitors in you window caulking don't stand a chance.
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:49 PM   #28
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Did you enjoy that book?
I'd second what HM said--the first 2/3 of it was great. The last bit was nuts, and completely stylistically different. Not bad on its own, just frustrating that it was pretending to be a conclusion to the first part. What it really feels like is there were three books, but the second was radically different, and maybe none were long enough, so they said "let's split the second book into the back end and the front end of books 1 and 3."
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:52 PM   #29
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Speaking of Stephenson, I also just finished "The Rise and Fall of D.O.D.O" which he actually co-wrote with a female author known for slightly-romanticized historical fiction. Her influence was evident, and jarring, and also made Stephenson's usual style jarring by comparison. I finished it without complaint, but I probably won't get the (again, clearly set up for) sequel.
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Old 01-29-2018, 01:53 PM   #30
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I present for your consideration that humans are extremely good at ignoring obvious, clear and present dangers which they are actually, fully aware of.

Here is a factoid which has faced varying degrees of dispute about scale and impact, which therefore you can be easily dismissed: the Roman Empire was aware of lead poisoning--its causes and effects--and yet continued to not only deliver water through lead pipes, but actually eat off of lead dishes. Why did they do that , and *how* could that even be possible?

How is it that, although an individual human will be aware that the leopard in the tree is going to jump down and eat you, a *group* of humans doesn't have this same instinct, collectively?


I would argue with equal veracity as your OP claims, that human culture is *very, VERY good* at ignoring threats.
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