North Korea fires missles

[TheMercenary]

This is certainly a tense situation. I have heard one talking head state that various generals in the NK Army were not sure that they would continue to support the Kim regime when the current one dies off. That could be good or it could be bad.

[piercehawkeye45]

I don't think anyone wants to see NK collapse. Refugees would be in the hundreds of thousands and no one wants a nuclear weapon to go missing.

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

What the heck are you talking about? What were the severe consequences?
The "There were no severe consequences."
or the "China just remained silent."?

Read what was posted - not what you want to read. Bluntly stated - there were no severe consequences. Therefore China never made the mistake of that threat a second time.

Its looking more like Kim has lost or is losing control of NK. That is bad for all. NK extremists believe their own propaganda - that the world conspires to destroy them.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by tw

Read what was posted - not what you want to read.

I always do. Your message was lost in your writing style.

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

Your message was lost in your writing style.

Context was only lost in your political agenda.

[classicman]

Sorry as you are tommyboy, you have cornered the market on that objective. Your political agenda is as obvious as the emotions in your posts. But I did find a link for you - Here it is

[TheMercenary]

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

One fear is that they will sell nukes. They have enough material for 6 of them, and they sure need the dough.

[Kaliayev]

North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.

Its a well set pattern: the DPRK wants something. Talks are stalled, or no-one is paying attention, because, like Britain's Got Talent is nearing the season finale.

So North Korea fires a missile over Japan. Suddenly, everyone goes "WTF?", even though South Korean and Japanese sources knew this was months in the planning. Or they test a nuke and cause some rumbling in Seoul.

The UNSC convenes, and decides to slap on some punishments to the DPRK, and restart the Six Nations talks. In the course of the talks, eventually, the North Korean greivance du jour becomes obvious (usually its frozen assets. They can usually lean on China for fuel and food, since China does not want a collapsed state on its border). Agreements are made, conditions are set.

Conditions are broken, or promises are not kept. Talks break down. North Korea bides its time, and then decides to do something "crazy" again. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes. If one of them went off, it knows its existence, as a regime, is forfeit, since it could be easily traced back to them. Since so far, North Korea has been playing a very careful game of upping the stakes, this would be quite out of character for them. They know they can bluster and threaten, but as soon as a nuke goes off, China, Japan and the USA will be looking to scalp them. Which is why they stick to their bluffing in the furtherance of more concrete goals.

The main worry is that a missile will land where it is not supposed to, ie; on Japan instead of the sea on the other side. Given they're not exactly working with high technology here its a real risk. Equally, their nuclear weapons designs came from Pakistan, and one thing I do know about the Pakistani arsenal is that the detonation systems were never secured in the way most other nuclear arsenals are. Since North Korean defectors are usually political and not scientific, we don't know if they have secured the weapons properly or not. I would hope the paranoid nature of the regime would have meant this had happened, but its by no means a given. Since a power struggle is coming in a few years, between Kim's more westernized son and the military's generals, THAT is something to look out for.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Kaliayev

North Korea is just doing what Pakistan did throughout the nineties - firing missiles for talks and prizes.

Usually I would agree with this but this situation isn't as clear cut. North Korea will appear weak to the world until a new successor for Kim Jong-Il takes control so the test could be a front to discourage any possible actions against the country during the transition. Also, NK's first nuclear test was not nearly as strong as was expected so this could show not only the world, but the NK population, that the administration is still strong even with Kim Jong-Il being replaced soon.

Originally Posted by kaliayev

Also, I very much doubt the DPRK would be stupid enough to sell its nukes.

Yes, in my opinion NK would have to be suicidal to sell nukes but they could use this event to advertise other weapons such as ballistic missiles.

[Undertoad]

The world's only hope is that they are rational actors.

[Perry Winkle]

If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Perry Winkle

If the powers are afraid of North Korea and Iran selling nukes, why don't they simply become the highest bidder?

That would give North Korea and Iran too much power. NK and Iran would actually have more incentive to create more nuclear weapons since they know they will get a lot of money from it and then NK and Iran would also have influence over our decisions.

Another reason is that we want to have power over NK and Iran. Once those countries get nuclear weapons, they will instantly become regional powers and the United States won't mess with them.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Once those countries get nuclear weapons, they will instantly become regional powers and the United States won't mess with them.

Its really too late for that. Thoughts need to now focus on how to deal with them WHEN, not if...

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

Its really too late for that. Thoughts need to now focus on how to deal with them WHEN, not if...

You give them too much credit. NK has numerous problems. Apparently their fissile material is low grade. Their experiment was not anywhere near as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb. And that means any bomb is also too large for deployment.

They launched a missile. To the naive and to those who always see enemies hiding everywhere, which means those missiles can be nuclear tipped. Nonsense. Facts say otherwise.

N Korea also does not have enough fissile material to market the stuff. Their nuclear program is for image - as if weapons alone make one powerful. Extremist military leaders worry about image. Implies military leaders, so worried about appearing weak, are in control. Did you not learn anything from Saddam and his WMDs?

UT cites a serious problem. The world's only hope is that they are rational actors. So the important question remains - who really is in charge?