Would Trump win again if a new election was today?

[Undertoad]

A thought experiment.

It looks like a lot of the non-Trump voters are now fully activated. It looks like stronger activation than the tea party, which was activated in 2009-2010 time frame.

But the tea party didn't unelect Obama in 2012, and the non-Trump voters still only get one vote per person, no matter how activated they are;

It seems to me that these new efforts are only interested in, and only effective at, reaching the already-converted; but perhaps I don't know;

Meanwhile, the Trump voters were so silent in their support that they would not honestly answer pollsters; one can only assume their pack of opposition to the opposition is intact, or can one?

And if he is unsuccessful at pressing the issues on which he was voted in, that surely doesn't soothe the people who voted on those issues one iota, right?

For example, the 40%* of the country that is angrily pro-refugee are now convinced harder to vote against Trump. And I believe that the airport-based protests were effective at communicating on the issue. But, aren't they inadvertently convincing the 60% that Trujmp is trying as hard as he can on their behalf, and his meeting with resistance is actually admirable?



*made-up statistic