Remember

[Griff]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

The loser in all of this is the US of A. I hope we stop losing so hard but I think it will get worse first

We seem determined to rip each other apart. It's easy to lose sight of what we all love in this country when we're accusing each other of insufficient love of same. I almost despair when I compare where we are now with NASA's work in the late 60's. I try not to despair by focusing on how bad the public perception of 1968-69 was except for the moon shot. We can dig ourselves out of this hole but only if we learn to respect each other.

Remember.

[Undertoad]

Today on the $100,000 pyramid

The "squad"... the quality of inner city Baltimore... Al Sharpton...

"Things the majority of Americans do not embrace but the Democrats are now defending because of tweets."

[tw]

Originally Posted by Griff

We seem determined to rip each other apart.

Hitler used same techniques to obtain power. How many bother to learn from history?

Apollo was totally about making decisions (and risks) from numbers. Today, so many only know something because it was the first thing they were told. How many learned what is always necessary to have sucess - perspective.

A benchmark remains: Saddam's WMDs (or the same lies that promoted Vietnam). Numbers (or facts based in science experience) and fundamental facts posted repeatedly here clearly demonstrated that hearsay was a lie. In each case subjective reasoning ignored well proven facts tempered by perspective and history.

Fact. Tax cuts create recessions. Reality will apparently again prove that fact. Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019. How severe? We do not yet know. No numbers exist to answer that. Only the subjective (emotional) will answer (or deny). But those who promoted emotional conclusions are already in denial.

Conclusions from subjective reasoning are also called brainwashing. Only recite what the central committee of the communist party has ordered us to believe. Trump said so. So it must be true.

In America, we are told to disparage every American ally, and to praise Putin, Xi, and Kim. We are ordered to believe. So it must be true - exactly like Saddam's WMDs and the evil Ho Chi Minh.

Trump's support comes from hate: the so many who also approve of the KKK, Nazi, and White Supremacists. That makes him popular - and reelected. Derisive is what Hitler, Milosevic, et al use to promote themselves. Polls demonstrate that 40% of Americans love those kinds of people. Some even post their hate inspired rhetoric here - repeatedly. They have no idea that hate is successfully being used to promote those emotions; to rip each other apart.

[henry quirk]

"Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019. How severe? We do not yet know. No numbers exist to answer that."

What numbers? Post them.

[tw]

Originally Posted by henry quirk

What numbers? Post them.

Those numbers were already posted - and multiple times. Only extremists conclude denials by ignoring facts and numbers.

[henry quirk]

"Those numbers were already posted - and multiple times."

Where? Which thread(s)? I wanna look at 'em.

#

"Only extremists conclude denials by ignoring facts and numbers."

Only liars avoid ponying up the evidence they claim they have, but don't.

[henry quirk]

I'm still waitin' for you to pony up those numbers...you know: the ones you claim were already posted multiple times, the ones that make it clear a recession began at the beginning of 2019.

Where are they, tw?

Where are the numbers?

You don't have to repost 'em here: just point me to the thread or threads where you did post 'em.

[tw]

Those many economic indicators were reported by the many responsible news services. But apparently not by Fox News. the Drudge Report, or Rush Limbaugh. Propaganda only reports what one is ordered to believe.

[henry quirk]

"Those many economic indicators were reported by the many responsible news services."

You claimed to have posted them here, in the Cellar, multiple times. I want you to direct me to those posts, or just admit you're a goddamned liar.

[Undertoad]

Tried to find 'em. According to tw we were already in recession in December 2018:

https://cellar.org/showthread.php?p=...on#post1022054

It looked like downturn at the end of 2018, but we've had two quarters of positive growth since then.

Recession is inevitable and they are saying 2020 now.

[henry quirk]

"Tried to find 'em."

And all you, Master of this Domain, could find was this...

https://cellar.org/showthread.php?p=...on#post1022054

...wherein tw (like the broken extremist record he is) lays blame on Trump without a stitch of that 'evidence' he crows about.

So: when tw sez "Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019.", and that he, in this here forum, posted those numbers "multiple times", he, in fact, was lyin', is a liar, and that facts mean nuthin' to him.

#

"Recession is inevitable."

Probably, but -- seems to me -- recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies. Sure, Trump's tariffs could retard the economy, but more likely Keynesian pessimism (and the unamericanism of folks like tw) will retard the economy.

[tw]

People whose information comes from honest sources know leading indicators say a recession apparently started at the the beginning of 2019 (as predicted at the end of 2018).

For example, the Obama economy results in construction permits of
2014 1.04 million
2015 1.18 m
2016 1.20 m
2017 1.28 m
2018 1.32 m

The current trend for 2019 (per marketwatch.com puts that number at 1.14 m - recessionary. Honest news sources have been reporting this. Friends who process this stuff had noted a maybe as much as a 20% drop at the end of last year - and continuing. All leading indicators.

Anyone not educated by propaganda (masking as news sources) also know the inverted yield curves said a recession started in the first quarter 2019. Another leading indicator.

GDP is a lagging indicator. For example, those leading indicators in early 2000 noted that America was not doing as well (but still growing) between 2002 and 2006. So the resulting recession finally appeared in jobs, corporate profit sheets, trade numbers, and GDP in 2006 through 2009.

Extremists only want to be told what to believe. The definition of wackos. Propaganda (lying) sources forget that this is still the tail end of an Obama economy. Extremist are only told lagging indicators. Some were posted above by forgetting its reports on the strength of that Obama economy.

Even stock markets (mostly Republican biased) are questioning this economy. Including an unprecedented 3% drop in one day. They have good reason to fear due to economic destruction obviously and currently implemented by a scum bag president that only extremists could love. Since extremists love anyone who would wreck shit.

Starting about Jan 2018, the stock market indexes where suddenly quite volatile. And have averaged almost no growth in that 18 months. Even markets have become suspicious of this economy.

This suggests (if things do not change) a recession will appear in job losses in a few more years (another lagging indicator that only reports what was happening in the economy many years previously).

Those who get honest news have been watching an ominous situation (and not only in economics - who still deny warning about the Sprately and Parcel islands). A recession is a certainty in part because it has been intentionally created by an extremist president for self serving and egotistical reasons.

This president loves how Putin, Xi, and Kim appeal to his ego. He has harmed American trade. He even insults American allies. American prestige around the world is at an all time low in all but a few places.

American trade in the Obama years increases on average 6.3% exports and 6.5% imports annually. In the past year, both exports and imports are now down (negative) about 0.7%. A number expected to fall as Trump advances himself at the expense of America. And another indication that growth has already stalled. What happens before lagging indicators report this recession years from now.

American annual GDP numbers from 1960 to 2017 have never seen a dip except during 2007 - the only recession that threatened to become as bad as 1929. Citing GDP numbers is a poor indication of a recession since recessions in 1979-1982, 1990-1991, and 2001-2002 do not appear as notable dips in annual GDP numbers.

Leading indicators report a recession has started in the first quarter this year. Extremists educated by Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck, Laura Ingles, et al would never learn reality. And clearly do not know what a leading indicator is. People using honest new sources do. It explains why a wacko extremist will post more disparaging comments rather than honest facts.

Some facts posted previous are posted again. The extremist would not know any of this. Extremist propaganda services don't report honestly - just like they lied about Hurricane Katrina and the dead of 5000 good American servicemen for no purpose in a Mission Accomplished war. More facts that exrtremist will ignore to instead post what they were ordered to believe.

[henry quirk]

Again: you said "Numbers make it clear that a recession has begun at the beginning of 2019.", and that you, in this here forum, posted those numbers "multiple times".

I want links to those posts.

Provide them or admit you are a lyin' liar.

[henry quirk]

Recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies having far more to do with Keynesian pessimism than actual down-turns or slowdowns.

'Experts" report a recession is imminent (based solely on their gut, what they believe should happen).

Folks, who see no evidence of a recession now or tomorrow, began actin' as though they were in the midst of one, or that one is around the corner, cuz the 'experts' say it's so.

The 'experts' (and the extremists like you) create the recession by influencing the behaviors of sellers, buyers, and manufacturers with Chicken Little predictions.

[tw]

Originally Posted by henry quirk

Recessions are largely self-fulfilling prophecies having far more to do with Keynesian pessimism than actual down-turns or slowdowns.

So the Central Committee of the Communist Party has again trained you in what to know.

Funny how concepts such as mathematics, economics, and history say otherwise. Your political handlers will not discuss these things. But they will recommend you get a bigger gun. Always a good solution for an extremist who wants to wreck shit.