Brexit

[DanaC]

Interesting article here, suggesting that Boris and his coterie were actually hoping to lose by a narrow margin. That they would gain the political capital of having stood up for Britain and weakened Cameron and his ilk within the party, without having to go through the pain of an actual brexit.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...osts-of-brexit

Personally, I find the whole thing thoroughly depressing. The Leave campaign has outright lied to us on so many issues. The Remain camp frankly weren't much better with their scaremongering - but the outright lies from the Leave campaign were breathtaking. They were already distancing themselves from them, less than 12 hours after the polling stations closed. The campaign promise that all that money we've been sending to the EU every week would go to the NHS? No, no that's not happening. And so it begins.

They have launched a wrecking ball at our country. They have sold us a lie. Leaving the EU will not fix the things they claimed it will fix. The biggie, the one most people who voted to Leave seem to have taken most to heart is that this will allow Britain to reduce immigration. It won't. There will be no salve to the troubles of the working class from this decision. All it has done and will do is destablise the country and economy even further. This is the beginning of major fragmentation.

I hope I'm wrong - I really do.

[DanaC]

This sums up the Leave campaign for me:



This is what did it. Anti-immigration in its ugliest form. It it resonates pretty uncomfortably with a nazi propaganda film in its visual style:

[tw]

Among lies easily promoted to the most easily brainwash was £20 billion given away to the EU annually. Observe what happened today.

Extremists hate institutions that are essential such as Central Banks. So that Britains will have a paycheck next week, the Bank of England spent £250 billion just today to support the pound. What extremists hate, ironically, saved the pound today and their paychecks this week.

If pound sterling continues to drop (since it is now regarded less stable and less desirable then the Chinese Yuan), then even more money must disappear in UK economy. The naive must deny that £250 billion to deny brainwashing.

Pound will rise some. Either way, Bank of England must spend more to protect the pound at higher costs. Either way, UK lost £billions only in one day because so many voters voted their emotions. Many business deals once done in pounds must be done in Dollars, Euros, Yuan, and Yen. Pound sterling will not longer be regarded safe enough for tranactions without some additional concessions British companies will pay penalties to banks and fat cat financial institutions to complete business deals once done almost transparently when part of the EU.

I was struck by Boris Johnson's contrite speech. He should have been cooing like an egotistical Donald Trump. Maybe he was trying to not alienate most of his party who regard him as Republicans regard Trump. Guardian article makes sense even though some is only speculation that connects the dots. But Johnson's objective was to achieve power at any expense. That is his history.

EU leaders are blunt. Britain must leave as fast as possible no matter how destructive those actions may be to Britain. No mercy. EU leaders have implied Article 50 will be executed vicious - as it should be to avert uncertainty. Expect them to also protect themselves at the expense of Britain. British representatives in the EU Parliament now have virtually no power and have contempt from their peers. Expect Britain to be handled with the disrespect it has earned.

[Happy Monkey]

Silver lining - it's probably going to be a very good time to buy stock.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey

Silver lining - it's probably going to be a very good time to buy stock.

These events are what currency traders dream of. Profit margin on currency trades are typically tenths of a percent. People such as George Soros have made fortunes trading at the expense of a country's Central Bank when that country had contempt for its economy. This is as much as 10% profit margins in only weeks or months - if one understands that market. Plenty of money to be made because the Bank of England has been forced to lose so many billions of pounds to protect liquidity.

[Dr. Zaius]

Not good. Banking and Financial makes up a huge part of the UK economy; some 10-12% of GDP, from what I understand. One of the reasons is that London is the top trading market for the Euro. Except ... whoops, the only reason that the financial services in London can trade the Euro is because it is part of the EU. That access is going to be cut off now - apart from the natural unwillingness of the EU to make any exceptions for this, there are financial centers in Frankfurt, Paris and Brussels that will gladly take over that business. In addition, the UK financial services will also lose free access to the European market - which severely curtails the usefulness of UK offices.

In short, absent an absurdly unlikely deal for the UK, the financial sector in the country is facing a devastating period of uncertainty, most likely terminated by the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. There is a reason why banking services were hardest hit on the stock markets once the verdict was in and rumors of massive cuts started almost immediately.

In addition, new investments in the UK are screeching to a halt right now. No sane industry is going to spend money in a place where they don't know what the future trading conditions are going to be like, and - absent a truly remarkable deal - the UK is going to be prioritized a lot lower going forward. The UK may be the world's (now) sixth largest economy, but Germany and France are - as of this morning - both bigger, - and for most companies free access to the Eurozone will be more important than free access to the UK.

There was an old joke about "Holy Roman Empire" being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire. We now have a new iteration of this joke: the "United Kingdom" is not united. It is split right down the middle, and some regions are poles apart from others (e.g. Scotland vs. rural England).

And yes, all evidence points to the EU wanting to make an example of UK, lest there is a domino effect: "if you vote to get out, we will screw you up royally". Now that just reinforces the prejudice that those Eurocrats are bastards now, didn't it? Well played from both sides.

[Pamela]

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by limey

Dana, I don't know if this helps but the referendum is a glorified opinion poll and any decision to leave still depends on parliament which is around 90% remain. Can't remember where I saw this but the whole thing is a Tory smoke screen ...

Sent by thought transference

I wonder if the Queen, through the new PM, will say no?

[DanaC]

The Queen has very little actual power. Or, more accurately, the Queen has nominal powers which if ever used would signal the end of the monarchy. The crown stays aloof from political decisions, they don't even publicly declare positions on anything. They adhere to a kind of constitutional neutrality. It was a potential scandal brewing when it was discovered that Charles had written to the prime minister expressing a view on some minor matter.

[DanaC]

And continuing the climb down from all their promises of what Brexit would mean for the UK:

The appearance of pro-Brexit Tory MEP Daniel Hannan on BBC’s Newsnight on Friday night is causing some indignation.

After Nigel Farage’s admission on Friday morning that the official Leave campaign claim that it could spend money recouped from Europe on the NHS was “a mistake”, Hannan told the BBC that Brexit would not necessarily end free movement of Labour. Newsnight presenter Evan Davis was a bit taken aback, given the core immigration message of the leave campaign:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...b0be24d34f6017


All the so-called benefits of Brexit with which they sold the idea to the voters are falling by the wayside already. So what exactly have we, the ordinary people, gained? There won't be additional money for the NHS, the immigration situation won't change. These were the two core planks of the Brexit campaign. Most people I know who voted to Leave did so because they thought the money saved would boost the NHS and other services and because they thought it would end what they saw as an onslaught of immigration.

We've crippled our nation, for what?

[sexobon]

Originally Posted by DanaC

... We've crippled our nation, for what?

To make it less attractive to immigrants 'cause many of them are fussy. It's a technique.

[Griff]

I saw it expressed as trading one group of distant oligarchs for a nearer group but I doubt any of your masters were upended. I'd guess that's the last popular vote you'll see related to the EU.

[sexobon]

Petition for 2nd EU vote hits 1 million signatures

... 1.2 million people signed a petition on the official government website by late morning calling for a repeat vote -- more than 12 times the 100,000 signatures required for a proposal to be discussed in the lower house of parliament. ...

... A parliamentary committee, which can put forward petitions for debate by lawmakers, will consider the proposal Tuesday. ...

... "A second independence referendum is clearly an option that requires to be on the table," First Minister Nicola Sturgeon declared after an emergency meeting of Scotland's parliament, which agreed to start to draw up legislation that could enable such a vote once a decision is taken. ...

[henry quirk]

Heard, still hearing, a lot on the exit...whole whack of folks for and against...all manner of dire consequence or heavenly reward foisted up as a result of leaving or staying.

Being a horrid, 'does not play well with others', type, I think the UK will (over the long haul) profit from the exit...in the short term, however, Britain will suffer (the EU is gonna try real hard to punish the UK).

Hunker down and wait it out.

[xoxoxoBruce]

CADE
Be brave, then; for your captain is brave, and vows
reformation. There shall be in England seven
halfpenny loaves sold for a penny: the three-hooped
pot; shall have ten hoops and I will make it felony
to drink small beer: all the realm shall be in
common; and in Cheapside shall my palfrey go to
grass: and when I am king, as king I will be,--

ALL
God save your majesty!

CADE
I thank you, good people: there shall be no money;
all shall eat and drink on my score; and I will
apparel them all in one livery, that they may agree
like brothers and worship me their lord.

DICK
The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers.