North Korea fires missles

[Trilby]

tw has all the answers, all the time.

[AlternateGray]

True, it can be annoying, but I think he may be right on this one. And of course, if I think something's right, it should be national policy. That's not the way it works though, which is why I want my own nukes someday. But I think that's it's own thread.

Other than insanity, there's not much else to explain their actions.

Initiating or provoking conventional military action would be disastrous, but I don't trust this admin to realize or accept that. Maybe they do, and they're waiting for N. Korea to cross some line that will technically justify the use of unconventional weapons. After all, the States are in no danger; it's the Koreans who will pay for any madness that goes down. Well, them and all the poor bastards stationed in S. Korea. Sounds crazy, but I have no faith in the sanity of some people. Especially those hounding glory and a place in the history books.

[xoxoxoBruce]

I believe the story about shutting down the NK counterfeiters was a link in the IOtD thread with the big $100 bill.

With China shutting off aid over the stolen trains, things will get worse quickly in the NK countryside.

I think the nukes are a bargaining chip for NK when the reunification talks develop...they will eventually. The only thing lacking is a Pink Floyd Song to kick it off.

[Ibby]

Looks like the human race is run...

[tw]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

With China shutting off aid over the stolen trains, ...

What is that about? Are they counterfeiting Lionel?

[BigV]

No, they're keeping the trains that are carrying the aid from China, claiming that the trains themselves are part of the aid package.

[MsSparkie]

Some thoughts on N.K. I am following:


"In North Korea, the control by the Kim regime is so absolute that televisions and radios by law are soldered to be pre-set to approved TV stations and radio stations, with the death penalty for anyone found to have overriden them.

Just one small taste of how bad it is.

Everybody--absolutely everybody--is required to wear a pin carrying Kim's face. Also, they're required by law to smile when in public, and failure to so smile is a crime.

Pregnant women are not allowed within the city limits of Pyongyang, the North Korean capitol. Why? Because they're ugly and disturbing and should not sully the perfect image of the state there. I swear I am not making this up.

Children can be jailed for not being sufficiently happy.

I repeat: children get jailed for being insufficiently happy. Along with their parents of course. Although they're imprisoned separately for the offense, so they quite likely never see each other again.

Even Castro is not this crazy horrible. It's like something out of Madelaine L'Engle's Time Quartet books in their portrayal of how Satan works: even children and how they must play and behave is governed by the state, with the most horrible of results for those who refuse to comply.

It's not that the North Koreans are inhuman. Far from it. But they've been dehumanized. As I say, even the people under the Taliban had it bettter.

It's horrific. And I don't know any easy answers to it, but I do think there are simple ones. They mostly, in my view, start with this: find a way to kill Kim. Yes, just kill him."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Kim is a joke. He probably doesnt even know whats going on. The real power - like in the Soviet Union - is held by the oligarchs and the hidden elites who have avested interest in remaining beyond the spotlight."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Nice idea, but, as others point out, it is simply impossible to communicate with the population of NK. Plus, it would take more than communication, it would take massive deprogramming to a level that might cause insanity. Imagine the shock of reaching adult hood and being told that everything you know is wrong. I can't imagine how one would mentally process such a thing.

I saw a former NK soldier on a history channel program a few years back. He was explaining how he regularly put whole families in gas chambers and released poison gas, and watched.

He was struck by how the parents, themselves dying, puking, choking, and convulsing, still made desperate attempts to perform mouth to mouth on their own dying, puking, choking, convulsing children. But, at the time, he felt nothing for them because he truly believed, as he had been told to believe his whole life, that these were the brutal enemies of the N. Koreans. He did this all the time.

In reality, their f***in Kim Jong Il pins probably just fell off, or one of them didn't smile enough. That's a lot of brainwashing to overcome in an incredibly isolated society."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Note that Kim jong-il has a brother, Kim Pyong-il. He has a favored son, Kim Jong-chul. He also has a disfavored son, Kim jong-nam. There are even reports of over a dozen illegitimate children.

There are figureheads a-plenty to keep the machine running."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"The "Happy Ending". Kim falls and another bad dictatorship doesn't take over. Let's say they reunite with SK. SK is screwed. Look at Germany and now imagine an even more oppressed civilation, in greater numbers, being absorbed by a weaker, less numerically superior nation. The GDP of SK would probably at least halve just trying to feed people who think grass soup is a meal.

And all of that is discounting what China will do. People talk about the Korean War, but partway into it it wasn't us fighting the Koreans, it was us fighting the Chinese. They like their buffer states. Look at the map of the world. We have bases in many of the 'stans. Mongolia likes us. South Korea likes us. Japan likes us. We have China surrounded and they don't really like that.
In other words, whatever happens, China is not going to just go along with a free Korea on their border. Heck, they have shown that they don't mind having a, possibly, nulear-armed, lunatic state on their border.

Killing Kim could cause chaos and most likely result in the death of millions without any good resolution.
I would say that a war between the US/South Korea (maybe Japan) and China (maybe Russia) is much more likely than a reunited Korea."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"Much as he deserves it, I doubt merely removing Kim would help. The next thug in line would just take his place. Consider what Iraq would look like had we simply removed Saddam.

No, the fact is, Kim Jong Il will go on raping beautiful 15-year-olds till he's sufficiently enfeebled that someone else seizes the reins.

And that next ruler will probably be even worse."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"NK can be brought down by an economic blockade, but that isn't possible without cooperation from China, and so far China hasn't been willing to participate.

However, that may have changed, very recently. The NK government may have succeeded in doing that which American diplomacy has largely failed.

Some Chinese aid to NK has been going in by train, and the last six times NK kept the trains as well as the aid. China is demanding the trains be returned, but NK is claiming that the trains are part of the aid. Apparently the Chinese are not going to send any more until NK starts returning its empties.

The real question is the pipeline that China has been using to send in heating oil. That is NK's lifeline. If it gets cut or shut down, NK collapses in short order. China has applied pressure to NK in the past by shutting it down for a day or two, and the question is whether they'll do it now, possibly for much longer."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


"China will keep NK afloat at all costs. They might slap the dog down for discipline from time to time, but NK is useful as a client state in a region that is overwhelmingly pro-US. China is indeed surrounded on the pacific seabord and NK is their ace in the hole. They will never fully sever the oil pipeline. The trains flap is a minor price for china to bear for teh strategic benefits; watch for the chinese to let the matter drop quietly. Its theater, pure and simple.

And I think that morale-wise, the NK army is indeed ripe for psychological warfare. Its not like we havent done it before; look at the 91 gulf war. but the NK army is even more pathetic in straits; their soldiers risk life and limb to stray into the DMZ looking for food (!!). Yes, soldiers so desperate that they will go fishing in the most heavily mined strip of land on earth!

it takes just one spark of anger in one breast to lead men in search of justice. remember john brown? the sepia mutiny? yes, elites tend to be the bearers of that spark, but 'tis the proles who keep the flame alight once lit. Thats the Amerian Revolution itself in a nutshell.

live free or die. how does that get translated to Korean? would make for a fine cover on a pamphlet, airdropped in by the millions on the army barracks in the dmz."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"They feed/heat the army first. If they're no longer able to feed/heat them, anything could happen.

Unfortunately, they've already proven they will let everyone else in the country starve/freeze to death first. The world does not have the will to impose that.

Sad as I am to say it, I think the NK regime will persist indefinitely, right up until the AI nanobots take over the world."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"give japan, taiwan, and sk some deterrent nukes too."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"But in the meantime, if Uncle Sam isn't prepared unilaterally to flatten Kim il-Sung's vicious and crazy kid, then just stop bleating about them. Lest this turn into another South Viet Nam, Haiti, Somalia mission of mercy and democracy. Or another Iraq, for that matter. "

[tw]

North Korea is returning to multi-nation talks. Little mentioned - N Korea got what they demanded. N Korea refused to talk multi-nation and wanted bilateral talks with the US. Well the US propaganda machine quickly promoted resumption of multi-nation talks after N Korea did an atomic explosion. What US 'lying by telling half truth' purveyors forget to mention - bilateral talks were conducted elsewhere in Berlin as a pre-requisite for further multi-national discussions. From Washington Post of 8 Feb 2007:

N. Korea Nuke Talks Resume on Positive Note
The Chinese chief negotiator and host, Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, suggested there were hopes of breaking a long stalemate that has led to questions about the future of the talks, which have been grinding away since August 2003. At a formal opening session, he qualified the new round as a "fresh start" made possible by agreements reached last month in separate bilateral discussions in Berlin between U.S. and North Korean diplomats.

What will it take to move forward - to bring N Korea back into the world community? Well already the US is slowly moving back to the same agreement negotiated by Jimmy Carter one decade earlier. Same agreement destroyed by the 'big dic' diplomacy of George Jr.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a congressional hearing she was "cautiously optimistic" that there will now be solid progress "toward the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula."

But don't fool yourself. N Korea previously agreed to stop their nuclear program in exchange for oil and two nuclear reactors. Then a Republican Congress canceled those trivial oil shipments. A new deal will cost many times more now that N Korea has demonstrated an atomic explosion. American 'big dics' can dump $billions of American taxpayer money in Iraq (it probably bought all those satellite dishes so hyped as 'progress'). But same 'big dics' even cut off trivial oil shipments to N Korea as too expensive - torpedoing the Carter deal. 'Big dics' apparently only understand fraud, bribery, K-Street, and 'dictatorship masking as democracy'. 'Big dics' fear negotiations to avoid war.

In order to bring N Korea into the world - in order for Kim to buy off his 'big dic' extremists without being killed in a coup d'etat - the cost of an agreement will be significant. Unfortunately, American is dominated by 'big dic' mentalities such as Cheney and Urbane Guerrilla. Talks will probably stalemate until America elects an intelligent leader - a centrist. But that means cost of a settlement - and that settlement is absolutely necessary - will only increase as N Korean 'big dics' accomplish more nuclear advancements and gain more power within N Korea.

U.S. officials have said their intelligence indicates North Korea has accumulated enough plutonium to fuel as many as 10 nuclear weapons and its main facility, at Yongbyon, is producing more. In addition, U.S. officials have said North Korea has a separate uranium enrichment program to produce more weapons material ...

So a buyout is already very expensive and getting more expensive.

Obviously, Jimmy Carter's deal (which earned him the Nobel Prize) is looking better each year. Shame that so many who listen only to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh were not publicly mocked and hanged in effigy in 2001. So now we pay for the sins of our extremists - our 'big dics'. And that does not even include the $2 trillion for "Mission Accomplished" or that bin Laden runs free. Those too are accomplishments of 'big dics'.

What is the situation with N Korea? Mike Chinoy detailed that relationship in a one hour interview on Radio Times on 5 Jul 2006. Go to that web site for Radio Times to select the broadcast date (5 Jul 2006). Wednesday PBS interview is the first hour.

[classicman]

Found this thread - seems an update was in order.

April 14, 2009 -- Nuclear watchdog asked to leave N.Korea

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that North Korea has asked its inspectors to leave the country. The U.S. criticized the decision and another North Korean announcement earlier in the day that it was pulling out of talks on the future of its nuclear program.

A statement on the IAEA's Web site said: "The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has today informed IAEA inspectors in the Yongbyon facility that it is immediately ceasing all cooperation with the IAEA. It has requested the removal of all containment and surveillance equipment, following which, IAEA inspectors will no longer be provided access to the facility."

It added: "The inspectors have also been asked to leave the DPRK at the earliest possible time. The DPRK also informed the IAEA that it has decided to reactivate all facilities and go ahead with the reprocessing of spent fuel."

North Korea's foreign ministry said earlier the country will quit talks aimed at disarming its nuclear weapons and strengthen nuclear capabilities, state-run media reported Tuesday.

The statement, issued via North Korean state-run media KCNA, listed reasons that the country will pull out of the so-called six-party talks.

"Now that the six-party talks have turned into a platform for infringing upon the sovereignty of the DPRK and seeking to force the DPRK to disarm itself and bring down the system in it, the DPRK will never participate in the talks any longer, nor will it be bound to any agreement of the six-party talks," KCNA said. The six-party talks -- involving China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States -- have been aimed at persuading North Korea to scrap its nuclear program.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called North Korea's decision to stop cooperating with the atomic energy panel "an unnecessary response to the legitimate statement put out of concern by the Security Council."

"Obviously we hope there will be an opportunity to discuss this, not only with our partners and allies, but also, eventually, with the North Koreans," she said.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs called North Korea's "announced threat to withdraw from the six-party talks and restart its nuclear program ... a serious step in the wrong direction."

"North Korea will not find acceptance by the international community unless it verifiably abandons its pursuit of nuclear weapons," he said. "The six-party talks offer North Korea the best path towards that acceptance through dialogue.

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

Found this thread - seems an update was in order.
April 14, 2009 -- Nuclear watchdog asked to leave N.Korea

It is not entirely clear that Kim is still in control. Events since his stroke imply others are now running the country. That opportunity to bring N Korea back into the world might have passed.

Among some of the strange or inconsistent events: the hot line between North and South Korea is no longer being answered on the North's side. A shutdown of that border industrial park and train service is inconsistent with Kim's previous objectives.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Who would take over, the military?

[tw]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Who would take over, the military?

The military was Kim's threat. He could not just open his country to the world. That military has his father's fears and neurosis. Having said that, which military. Guaranteed: the N Korean military is not a monolithic block. Is there infighting? We know so little about this nation let alone the mindset of their military power brokers.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Iran has probably convinced some faction that this is the way to go.

[classicman]

This further begs the question of what China's prime objective or desired outcome of all this is. It is apparent that it is different than that of the US.

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

This further begs the question of what China's prime objective or desired outcome of all this is. It is apparent that it is different than that of the US.

There is not monolithic alliance between China and North Korea.

For example, then N Korea was to launch their first missile, China warned them not to saying a launch would have severe consequences. N Korea launched anyway. There were no severe consequences.

When N Korea was to launch their second missile, China did not make the same mistake again. Instead, China just remained silent. Even China does not fully understand what happens in N Korea. But China is better positioned to know more.

Even China's "severe consequences" has little influence in North Korea.

But again, the remaining question. Who really is in charge since Kim had his stroke? The 'powers that be' could be slowly replacing Kim so that N Korea does not rejoin the world. Then any attempt to avert a future war would have been lost. North Korean ignorance of the world is widespread. Such people would fear anyone who has seen the world; such as Kim and his sons. If they put their own person in power, then few alternatives may exist other than war.

Jimmy Carter’s deal was our best chance to defuse this situation. Hopefully Kim remains in power. An alternative is dire.