12/26/2002: Korean peninsula

[Zorg]

Originally posted by tw

Those who cannot challenge the facts instead attack the messenger. A classic propaganda move to avoid the fact that N Korea has not violated all sorts of treaty obligations. One who is informed only by an war advocate would believe a silly idea that a N Korean electric system could not absorb 5 Megawatts. 5 megawatts could easily be even in any African electric system. Undertoad has posted pictures providing that 5 megawatts is desperately needed.

Posted was a specific question. The question was asked to learn if Undertoad or sycamore understood details before they marched off in admiration of George Jr. What recent event triggered these events. Insead of attacking the messenger, provide the world with knowledge that it seeks - if you can. What event triggered these events?

If North Korea really only want to use the nuclear power to produce electricity, why get rid of UN inspectors and monitoring equipment, which could insure that the world knew they weren't making bombs.

And as for NK not violating treaty obligations, the whole reason the Bush administration shut off fuel shipments to North Korea was because it was discovered they were pursuing an illegal nuclear weapons program.

[tw]

Originally posted by Zorg
If North Korea really only want to use the nuclear power to produce electricity, why get rid of UN inspectors and monitoring equipment, which could insure that the world knew they weren't making bombs.

And as for NK not violating treaty obligations, the whole reason the Bush administration shut off fuel shipments to North Korea was because it was discovered they were pursuing an illegal nuclear weapons program.

If Undertoad or sycamore would only answer a simple question, then it would be obvious what N Korea's intentions were. Making electricity nor bombs is not their primary objective. Making electricity is convenient now that the US has cut off oil supplied to make that reactor unnecessary. If the central issue is not addressed, then we may find the world with another 100 pounds of weapons grade plutonium.

If N Korea wanted to make plutonium bombs, then they would have removed seals, kicked out inspectors, and said nothing - all at once on that same day. They did not do any of that. They announced the inspectors would have to leave and then waited. They announced they would remove seals from nuclear rods, and then waited. Eventually they did remove seals and waited to let inspectors see where those rods were going - into the reactor. For another day's international news, only then did they enforce the deadline for inspectors to leave. They even made a big deal about removing the irrrelevant monitoring cameras. But by announcing those camera's removal, it made another big story for international news services. Every step was correographed for maximum international attention. Bomb making or electric production apparently is not N Korea's primary intent. They want world attention on something that neither Undertoad nor Sycamore appear to understand.

The uranium reprocessing still remains a mystery. Did that uranium processing violate any international agreements? That remains disputed. They did not violate a 1994 agreement that only applied to the plutonium and associated reactor. Is the uranium being reprocessed as highly enriched bomb material or low grade just for energy generation? That is not even clear. Even George Jr's administration avoids that significant difference. The only part of international agreements clearly violated by that uranium processing facility is that they refuse to permit IAEA inspectors to inspect that facility.

Was the uranium program being run by the country's hard line military structure without direct knowledge of Kim Jung Il's people? If so, then does Kim Jung Il really run the country or have hard liners turned Kim into a puppet leader? That uranium reprocessing facility does remain a confused reality - and not a good indication the N Korea is being fully honest with its neighbors and treaty obligations. Still the uranium processing facility is a separate issue from the unsealing and installation of nuclear rods.

Do events surrounding the plutonium rods sound like a country that wants to violate the nuclear non-proliferation agreements - or a country desperately trying to make an international point? If Undertoad or sycamore would only answer a simple question, then their point would be obvious. Unfortunately, too many people listen blindly to preachings from George Jr's right wing extremists. Total nonsense such as N Korea cannot absorb 5 trivial megawatts of electricity. Since those extremists did not provide essential details, then sycamore and Undertoad cannot answer the simple question - what recent event triggered the plutonium rod dispute? Why does the George Jr administration avoid mentioning this part of the dispute?

What is the event that triggered this N Korean disupte? I made the answer easy. Why is N Korea doing everything with that plutonium to make international news? And why are they not doing anything to make a plutonium bomb and to protect those fuel rods from military attack? Undertoad and sycamore must avoid these question to justiify this administration's fear and military threats. What is the event that triggered this N Korean dispute - the question that Undertoad and sycamore apparently fear to answer?

[quzah]

Originally posted by Undertoad
But the government has lied before, therefore the government is lying this time, and only I have the intelligence and presence of mind to detect this.

And our government has never lied? Or were you in fact talking about our governemnt? Jesus christ, that's absurd. Every government lies. However, you're blindly swallowing everything any of our "goverment leaders" spew out. Sure, be patriotic all you want, but at least pull your head out of the sand and consider the possiblity that our president is a fucking moron.

Quzah.

[quzah]

This whole North Korea thing is, IMO, just to show us how two faced America is.

GW: "Oooooh evil Iraq has 'weapons of mass destruction'! We must keeeeel them."

GW: "Ooooooh North Korea is in the axis of evil because they are friendly with Iraq!"

North Korea: "Yeah dumb ass, we have nuke capability too. Come bomb us, chicken shit."

GW: -=voice of Killer the buzzard=- "Nope. Nope. Nope. Must be friendly. Must not bomb them."

WTF? Hello? Am I the only one here that sees how stupid this is? China has nukes. India. Pakistan. We're not bombing them. We bring up time and again how "evil Iraq" gassed and did all this shit to their own people. Do we ever mention that we helped them do it? Oh fuck no! Because then we'd look as supid as we really are.

But to on, just blindly let your governemnt do whatever they feel like. Support them all the way. Be sure and tell your congressman how happy you are with all the new "Homeland Security" bills they pass that rape you of your freedom also. They like that kind of support.

We just have to be the fucking police of the world. How stupid would it look if all of this sudden Canada decided that France couldn't export wine any more, because they didn't like that they had a few tanks? They lobby the world and slap them with trade embargos.

It's the same damn thing. We just decide what we want the rest of the world to do and are shocked shitless if they don't immediately bend over and grab their ankles.

I mean really, how dare another sovern nation dictate their own policies?

Quzah.

[Undertoad]

tw, unlike yourself, I answered your question directly with one sentence.

[tw]

Originally posted by Undertoad
But if you really need an answer, then sure, why not. These events were triggered by North Korea resuming its nuclear program, in violation of UN and other international treaties, most especially the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, in 1998.

So what was George Jr's response?

[Undertoad]

January 2002: President George W. Bush says North Korea, Iran and Iraq form an "axis of evil" threatening the world with weapons of mass destruction. North Korea says the remarks amount to a declaration of war.

April 2002: Bush issues a memorandum stating that he will not certify North Korea's compliance with the Agreed Framework. However he allows continued U.S. funding of oil shipments.

August 2002: KEDO holds a ceremony to mark the pouring of concrete foundations for the first LWR.

October 3-5, 2002: James Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, confronts Pyongyang with U.S. evidence of a covert uranium enrichment programme. North Korea responds by saying it is "entitled to possess not only nuclear weapons but other types of weapons more powerful than them in defense of its sovereignty in face of the U.S. threat."

October 16, 2002: The United States announces that North Korea admitted during Kelly's visit to having a covert programme to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.

October 25, 2002: North Korea's Foreign Ministry says it will address U.S. concerns about its nuclear programme if the United States signs a non-aggression treaty, guarantees Pyongyang's sovereignty and pledges not to interfere in its economic development.

November 14, 2002: The United States and its allies hold a KEDO meeting in New York and decide to cut off fuel oil shipments to North Korea, beginning in December.

November 29, 2002: The IAEA calls on North Korea to open its atomic weapons programme to inspections, says it "deplored" Pyongyang's assertion it had a right to possess the weapons.

December 4, 2002: North Korea rejects the IAEA call to open its weapons programme to inspections, saying the U.N. nuclear watchdog was abetting U.S. policy toward the North.

December 21, 2002: The IAEA says North Korea has disabled surveillance devices the agency had placed at the five-megawatt Yongbyon research reactor.

December 22, 2002: North Korea says it has begun removing IAEA monitoring equipment from Yongbyon, drawing condemnation from the United States, South Korea, Japan and France.

(Copied without permission from CNN who copied it with permission from Reuters. Original CNN link below contains many timeline points before Jan 2002.)

http://asia.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiap...timeline.reut/

[tw]

Originally posted by Undertoad
[b]January 2002: President George W. Bush says North Korea, Iran and Iraq form an "axis of evil" threatening the world with weapons of mass destruction. ...
October 3-5, 2002: James Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, confronts Pyongyang with U.S. evidence of a covert uranium enrichment programme. North Korea responds by saying it is "entitled to possess not only nuclear weapons but other types of weapons more powerful than them in defense of its sovereignty in face of the U.S. threat." ...
November 14, 2002: The United States and its allies hold a KEDO meeting in New York and decide to cut off fuel oil shipments to North Korea, beginning in December. ...

And so events spiraled into potential confrontation. Korea is more dangerous than anything in Iraq. But what is the purpose of war? To put a dispute back on the negotiation table. If there are no talks, then war is a commonly used alternative to force discussion back to the table. Diplomatic discussion is never terminated - except when one wants war.

Therefore in the middle of November, only the US demanded that all further oil shipments be suspended to N Korea AND that all diplomatic channels be completely severed. All discussions terminated - both actions taken against objections of Japan and S Korea. A country that wishes to avoid war does not terminate all discussion. But George Jr personally ordered it. I can just imagine Colin Powell bristling - knowing full well that such an order could only create problems. It did.

Therein lies the reason for a long, drawn out, well publicized termination of Clinton's 1994 negotiated settlement. Having bluntly terminated all negotiation, George Jr forced N Korean moderates into an alliance with N Korean hard liners. Having terminated all discussions with N Korea, then even the moderates in N Korea had no alternative but to agree with N Korean extremists - to access those nuclear rods and restart the electric power plant.

Day after his Sunday morning talk shows, Colin Powell made a key statement. He said the US would "talk but not negotiate". That statement was in direct contradiction to George Jr's original orders. Later that week, George Jr also said the US would talk with N Korea. Breakthrough? I hope so.

Maybe the disagreement has stopped spiraling out of control. Clearly damage has been done to 'engage' N Korea into a world community. Engagement is the policy adovcated by Japan and openly touted by S Korea's Sunshine program. A question remains. Can engagement be restarted so that N Korean extremists don't get a plutonium bomb?

N Korea is not a monolithic dictatorship much as Gorbechev's first years were not a monolithic USSR. The N Korea famine only made it obvious to some N Koreans that hard liners policy was no longer acceptable. Important that the US tread carefully here so as to empower N Korean moderates. However we have undermined those moderates to the advantage of extremists - because we rattled sabers rather than use the conference table. We only proved that N Korean extremist are right - that we intend to invade and conquer N Korea.

N Korean hard liners typically have almost no knowlege of the world. Most are convinced that the US intents to attack N Korea at the first sign of weakness. These extremist hold extensive power. Moderates can only gain power if engagement with the outside world is productive. Both Japan and S Korea did not - repeat - did not want to terminate oil shipments to N Korea. Both believe that engagement is the only way to keep N Korea from becoming a military threat.

N Korea is a very dangerous situation IF not handled with full knowledge of power competition inside the N Korean government. To avoid war, those N Korean moderates must be empowered - by always maintaining diplomatic communication. The current plutonium dispute demonstrates that terminating discussion can only result in things worse.

George Jr should have responded negatively to those revelations that N Korea had a uranium program. However NEVER terminate diplomatic discussion - except if you want war. George Jr did the worst thing possible. Fortunately N Korea has not yet attempted to build a plutonium bomb AND demonstrated their intent not to do so - but only for now.

[Undertoad]

To quit negotiation is a fine tactic when you're in a position with time to spare, and where time will cause your opponent's position to deteriorate.

Stopping the oil trade (tied to the nuclear treaty), continuing the food aid, and not giving the tyrant the time of day seems to be the ideal choice.

The nuclear threat is not a bargaining chip to be dealt when a nation sees fit. Especially since they haven't fired off a test nuke. Normally a country blows up a patch of nothing to show everyone that they aren't lying, that they do have a nuke, and that their words actually do bear a greater level of seriousness.

That's more likely why Powell used the "believe" language, by the way. Until they explode one, even the North Koreans don't know if they really have a nuclear bomb.

[Zorg]

Well, tw is starting to make at least a small bit of sense. He's right in that at least a large part of North Korea's motivation in kicking out IAEA inspectors was to force concessions from the US and South Korea. Of course, the threat they used was the creation of more nuclear weapons, which they're more than likely to follow through on, since they've already taken the diplomatic heat for doing so. And why do you think this should be considered a mitigating factor? I'd say threatening the rest of the world every time you want to sit down at the negotiating table is not a good way to encourage goodwill towards yourself.

[jaguar]

To quit negotiation is a fine tactic when you're in a position with time to spare, and where time will cause your opponent's position to deteriorate.

*sighs* I don't entirely agree with tw but the sunshine policy S Korea has been taking has been more positive than anything else and has seem positive cahnges, if small ones. I don't see the point of such a confrontational strategy, which is a huge risk if they do ahve a nuke, or even if they don't. The country may be a joke but they still have a huge army. Unless George wants to test out the fight two wars and win claim or something.

When it comes to diplomacy N Korea is the world's retarded child but this strategy still seems well...pointless to me.

[tw]

Originally posted by Zorg
He's right in that at least a large part of North Korea's motivation in kicking out IAEA inspectors was to force concessions from the US and South Korea.

The concession demanded was only from the US. S Korea and Japan wanted to continue engagement with N Korea. Korea was demanding a concession only from the US. It is George Jr who ordered all further contact with N Korea be halted - to isolate N Korea. When Colin Powell said "talk without negotiation", those who appreciate the fine details understood that it would have been the US conceding - without appearing so. If George Jr has recinded his order of no further contact, then the US made a concession to N Korea. IF. I have yet to see any indication that talks with N Korea have actually resumed.

The South Koreans did not regard the North actions as a demand for concessions. They regard the startup of a nuclear reactor as a direct response to militant, cowboy diplomacy that contributes to destruction of treaty after treaty - from the Oslo Accords to the Strategic Arms treaty on anti-ballistic missiles to the US - N Korea 1994 agreement. George Jr keeps destroying treaties - and advocating war as a solution. Therefore S Koreans don't fear the North. They fear the American government. Based upon George Jr's history as President, S Koreans do have much reason to fear. Just the fact that he canceled all contacts with N Korea demonstrates how little he understands world diplomacy. No wonder he has diminished US relationships with virtually every nation in the world. Every George Jr solution to a problem is a military one. That most scares S Korea - as polls and the recent S Korean presidental election demonstrate.

[tw]

Notice what has happened with the Korean dispute. It was suppose to be about their secret uranium processing. But do to bad politics, the dispute shifted, instead, to nuclear rods that contain plutonium. What should have been addressed up front has instead become a secondary issue.

Refering to Undertoad's timeline:

October 3-5, 2002: James Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, confronts Pyongyang with U.S. evidence of a covert uranium enrichment programme.

What contigencies did the US plan for various N Korean responses. Apparently nothing. Terminating all diplomatic contacts appears to be only a knee jerk US reaction. The US had every oppurtunity to plan and maintain a diplomatic initative. But US negotiators apparently wasted that initative. They had no game plan beyond challenging the N Koreans with information. What kind of planning is that other than knee jerk diplomacy?

In the meantime, N Koreans 1) have successfully diverted attention to another issue - plutonium, AND 2) stated exactly why they starting a nuclear progam and 3) what it would take to terminate the program. N Korea's major fear is a US invasion. They want a non-agression treaty which should be no problem if the US does not intend to invade. If #3 is a bluff, well the US did not even call them on it. Instead of calling the bluff, the US terminated all negotiations. That only says to N Korean extremists that the US now intents to attack in the near future.

The US had no game plan behind James Kelly's challenge? As a result, the most imporant issue - uranium reprocessing - is no longer the primary issue. As a result, S Korea, who is not a target of N Korea's distrust, has offered to act as arbitrator between the two disputing parties - N Korea and US. S Korean president said both side must make concessions. Ironic that two nations most threatened by a nuclear N Korea are instead neutral parties in this dispute.

Rumors also suggest that neither Japan nor S Korea was even consulted before Kelly challenged the N Koreans. It all stinks of bad US diplomacy that even surrendered the diplomatic initative to the N Koreans. The US did not even have contingency plans for N Korean responese? Why not? This entire dispute has been badly mismanaged by the US as if the US had no idea what to do after Kelly challenged the N Koreans.

[elSicomoro]

The North Korean Government

I originally put this link in the Manifestos, but I'll put it here too b/c it's...appropriate.

[classicman]

bumped for Queen