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Old 02-26-2018, 02:22 PM   #32
Happy Monkey
I think this line's mostly filler.
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DC
Posts: 12,589
Is the goal the center of the randomized grouping, or is the goal zero? R+1.5 is still favoring Republicans, and that 1.5 bonus can translate to an even bigger benefit in actual representation:
Quote:
In the average 2016 contest on the new map, Democrats would have carried an average of 8.4 districts (out of 18), even though Democrats won the statewide popular vote in the average contest. The median congressional district favored the Republicans by a point in the average 2016 contest.
Over 50% Democratic voters becomes less than 50% Democratic representatives - with the NEW map.

As I see it, the grouping is the leeway that Republicans would have had when making the map themselves, while still having cover claiming that their advantage was structurally inherent in the urban/rural divide.

But if deliberately designing a map with the intent to minimize partisan advantage, the goal is zero.

If they hadn't pushed for an even more obscene advantage, they could have easily gotten away with R+6 to even R+10. But they forced the court to make the map, instead, and will have to settle for R+1.5.
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