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Old 02-28-2017, 12:15 PM   #1
Flint
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if News not 'fake' -why was Trump loss predicted?

Of course, the real question is, "can we trust polls?" but... because mainstream media continuously seeks to build a narrative based on polling data, an erosion of our confidence in polling data equals a valid reason to doubt the veracity of what they're telling us is happening in the world.

Step one: major polling aggregates predict Clinton victory as about 90-100% certain. (With the exception of Nate Silver's 538 which gave Clinton a 71.4% chance.)

Step two: Trump wins, everyone is shocked, and the world changes overnight--with no warning!

Step three: "..fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.”



Today the media is telling me that support for Obamacare is higher than ever. According to polls.

:::internally remembering that one time when all the polls were wrong:::



Trump saying 'fake news' is ridiculous, on a factual level, but it works on a gut level because the news betrayed us.
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Old 02-28-2017, 12:16 PM   #2
DanaC
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Surely we all understand though, that there is a vast gulf between predicting what will happen and reporting what did happen?
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Old 02-28-2017, 12:22 PM   #3
Flint
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Sure, according to nerds who think they know everything.
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expression. ... I found, like Joseph Campbell said, if you just follow whatever
gives you a little joy or excitement or awe, then you're on the right track.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terry Bozzio
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Old 02-28-2017, 01:19 PM   #4
footfootfoot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flint View Post
Step one: major polling aggregates predict Clinton victory as about 90-100% certain. (With the exception of footfootfoot who gave Clinton 0% and Nate Silver's 538 which gave Clinton a 71.4% chance.)
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Old 02-28-2017, 06:16 PM   #5
Pamela
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Polls are not the problem.

People who report polls are the problem.

Oversampling the favored group in nearly every Clinton/Trump poll caused the disconnect. They wanted SO MUCH for Clinton to win that they made it happen, kinda like the liberal atheist version of prayer.

Now, Trump Derangement Syndrome has taken hold of those same people who believed the polls, much to my amusement.

Last edited by Pamela; 02-28-2017 at 06:16 PM. Reason: fixed typo
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Old 02-28-2017, 06:36 PM   #6
Happy Monkey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flint View Post
Step one: major polling aggregates predict Clinton victory as about 90-100% certain. (With the exception of Nate Silver's 538 which gave Clinton a 71.4% chance.)
To be fair, only an aggregator who said 100% Clinton was actually wrong. "So you're telling me there's a chance!"

The pre-aggragation polls are more checkable, as their percentage can be compared to counted votes.

You could probably judge the aggregator's results somewhat, by comparing the actual difference between each poll and relevant vote count with the assumed error range and bias applied to it in the aggregator's formula, and see how much that affects the results.

The polls got the nationwide stats pretty accurately, but not some key swing states. Though, if the difference was within their margin of error, there's not much they could have done about that.

Of course, none of that matters on the gut level.
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Old 02-28-2017, 08:09 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Monkey View Post
To be fair, only an aggregator who said 100% Clinton was actually wrong. "So you're telling me there's a chance!"

The pre-aggragation polls are more checkable, as their percentage can be compared to counted votes.

You could probably judge the aggregator's results somewhat, by comparing the actual difference between each poll and relevant vote count with the assumed error range and bias applied to it in the aggregator's formula, and see how much that affects the results.

The polls got the nationwide stats pretty accurately, but not some key swing states. Though, if the difference was within their margin of error, there's not much they could have done about that.

Of course, none of that matters on the gut level.
So you're saying feelings matter more than facts...
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:49 PM   #8
xoxoxoBruce
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To the majority of voters, YES.
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