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Old 02-17-2017, 11:30 AM   #1
Undertoad
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Would Trump win again if a new election was today?

A thought experiment.

It looks like a lot of the non-Trump voters are now fully activated. It looks like stronger activation than the tea party, which was activated in 2009-2010 time frame.

But the tea party didn't unelect Obama in 2012, and the non-Trump voters still only get one vote per person, no matter how activated they are;

It seems to me that these new efforts are only interested in, and only effective at, reaching the already-converted; but perhaps I don't know;

Meanwhile, the Trump voters were so silent in their support that they would not honestly answer pollsters; one can only assume their pack of opposition to the opposition is intact, or can one?

And if he is unsuccessful at pressing the issues on which he was voted in, that surely doesn't soothe the people who voted on those issues one iota, right?

For example, the 40%* of the country that is angrily pro-refugee are now convinced harder to vote against Trump. And I believe that the airport-based protests were effective at communicating on the issue. But, aren't they inadvertently convincing the 60% that Trujmp is trying as hard as he can on their behalf, and his meeting with resistance is actually admirable?



*made-up statistic
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Old 02-17-2017, 11:49 AM   #2
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I think a small number of Trump voters would stay home. Most would still vote for him, and some left leaning folks who stayed home would come out to vote for Hillary this time.

No idea if it would be enough in those key states to win the electoral college.
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Old 02-17-2017, 11:59 AM   #3
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I have no clue.

But here are what I consider to be the two main factors:

  • How many voted for him only because they assumed he couldn't win, and expected their vote to just be a shot across the bow? Would they still want a direct hit? Similar to Brexit, I suspect the numbers would change if the voters knew up front he could win.
  • There were some who thought he would calm down when out of campaign mode. Would they still vote for him, knowing that not only didn't he calm down; he filed for reelection on inauguration day, and is holding another campaign rally soon?
I suspect the Muslim ban is a net winner for him, for the reasons you give.

And this question could be revisited when when have an idea of what's up with the ACA. Though he would probably be able to let Congress take the blame for any problems there.
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Old 02-17-2017, 01:43 PM   #4
footfootfoot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Monkey View Post
I have no clue.

But here are what I consider to be the two main factors:

[list][*] How many voted for him only because they assumed he couldn't win.
Putney Swope
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Old 02-17-2017, 05:55 PM   #5
xoxoxoBruce
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Don't know but 2020 should be interesting seeing he has already filed for reelection.

Not likely to go anywhere but interesting...
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:30 PM   #6
Griff
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My gut says there would be a small shift in voters for the reasons given. It would really take just a small shift. Two nominees with huge negatives, still a small turnout. I read that Hillary is already running again, New Zealand is a beautiful place.
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:20 AM   #7
xoxoxoBruce
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A look ahead to the 2021 Inauguration.
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:13 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce View Post
Most frightening post in cellar history.
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Old 02-18-2017, 11:33 PM   #9
tw
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Quote:
Originally Posted by footfootfoot View Post
Putney Swope
I thought I was the only one who saw that movie.

Do you expect the Donald to die in a boardroom meeting - or a cabinet meeting? Since he clearly has not separated himself from his businesses.
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Old 02-19-2017, 12:22 PM   #10
footfootfoot
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Originally Posted by tw View Post
I thought I was the only one who saw that movie.

Do you expect the Donald to die in a boardroom meeting - or a cabinet meeting?

We can only hope...

Since he clearly has not separated himself from his businesses.
heh heh.
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Old 02-19-2017, 01:52 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by footfootfoot View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by tw View Post
I thought I was the only one who saw that movie.

Do you expect the Donald to die in a boardroom meeting - or a cabinet meeting?

We can only hope...

Since he clearly has not separated himself from his businesses.
heh heh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-iX_G-nosc#t=03m30s

The whole bit is great, but this segment applies to footfootfoot's amendment of tw's post.
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Old 02-19-2017, 11:56 PM   #12
footfootfoot
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Is that really how you want to spend the last two years of your life?
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Old 02-20-2017, 08:23 AM   #13
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I LOLed.
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:28 AM   #14
footfootfoot
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His timing is great, as is his delivery.
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Old 02-24-2017, 02:27 PM   #15
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Shouldn't the question be, would he be re-elected if he were running again in 2018?
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