North Korea fires missles

[classicman]

Originally Posted by tw

China warned them saying a launch would have severe consequences. N Korea launched anyway.
There were no severe consequences.
When N Korea was to launch their second missile,
China just remained silent.
Even China's "severe consequences" has little influence in North Korea.

What the heck are you talking about? What were the severe consequences?

The "There were no severe consequences."
or the "China just remained silent."?

[classicman]

Anyway -

North Korea reportedly fired two short-range missiles yesterday in a move set to heighten tensions after its latest nuclear weapons test drew global condemnation.

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to consider the options after Pyongyang’s test of a nuclear device on Monday, which some estimates said was almost as powerful as the atomic bombs that flattened Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The Security Council called the test a “clear violation” of international law and immediately began working on a resolution that could impose new sanctions on the secretive North, which has now tested two nuclear bombs in three years.

“This resolution should include new sanctions in addition to those already adopted because such behavior should have a cost and a price to pay,” Deputy French Ambassador to the UN Jean-Pierre Lacroix said.

Following the UN condemnation, North Korea launched one ground-to-air missile and one ground-to-ship missile into the sea yesterday off its eastern coast near the city of Hamhung, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported.

“Intelligence authorities are analyzing the motives for the firing,” it quoted a South Korean government source as saying, adding that each missile had a range of 130km.

Last month, Pyongyang test-fired a long-range rocket that critics say was in fact a ballistic missile, and on Monday it test-fired three short-range missiles after the nuclear blast.

Russia estimated the force of Monday’s underground nuclear explosion at up to 20 kilotonnes, far more powerful than the October 2006 test.

North Korea said the latest test would “contribute to defending the sovereignty of the country and the nation and socialism, and ensuring peace and security on the Korean peninsula and the region.”

[classicman]

And here is a Q & A with Gordon Flake Executive Director, Mansfield Foundation...

[piercehawkeye45]

An interview with Sheila A. Smith, Senior Fellow for Japan Studies from council of foreign relations.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/19480...breadcrumb=%2F

[classicman]

Thanks PH. That was a very good, yet disturbing read. I don't see North Korea coming to any table or talking till they are nuclear... then what If Kim is still around ... or if not? I read that his youngest son is suspected to be the heir apparent.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by classicman

Thanks PH. That was a very good, yet disturbing read. I don't see North Korea coming to any table or talking till they are nuclear... then what If Kim is still around ... or if not? I read that his youngest son is suspected to be the heir apparent.

Yes, his son seems to be expected to take over eventually.

I am not sure how to take this. Every source I've read seems to conclude that NK wants to be accepted as a nuclear power just as India was. I haven't seen anything that suggests that NK will be a direct threat to the world because of their severe lack of industrial power. They will not be able to produce a large amount of missiles so any attack SK, Japan, or anyone else would be a suicidal mission. You can never be certain though.

Another viewpoint:
http://www.defencetalk.com/north-kor...e-world-19214/

[Undertoad]

One fear is that they will sell nukes. They have enough material for 6 of them, and they sure need the dough.

[piercehawkeye45]

Yep, the same fear with Iran. It really depends on what their goals are. Since NK doesn't have the same perceived mission as Iran (no Israel to "destroy") it will be interesting to see how US policy will change. If the biggest fear is that NK will sell the technology to other groups for needed money, trade may open to NK to get them out of their poverty situation. If NK wants "acceptance" in the world community, a nuclear weapon could be their ticket. The risk is great and I personally don't think it will work but there is a possibility it will open trade and lift sanctions against them.

I've read (take with grain of salt) that they are not planning on getting rid of them at the moment but that stance can change quickly if events change.

[piercehawkeye45]

NKorea warns of attack after SKorea joins drill

SEOUL: North Korea Wednesday blasted South Korea's decision to join a US-led anti-proliferation exercise as tantamount to a declaration of war, and threatened an attack if any of its ships are stopped.

The communist state's powerful military declared it is no longer bound by the armistice which ended the 1950-53 war on the peninsula.

http://www.defencetalk.com/nkorea-wa...s-drill-19265/


I am assuming this is just talk, supposedly NK has done this many times in the past but naval encounters between NK and SK would not be surprising.

Another source:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124339629081257563.html

[Beestie]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

I am assuming this is just talk

I wouldn't. This has gone way beyond saber-rattling and my buddy who works in SK as a NK intel analyst has gone silent on me.

[classicman]

I bet he is one very busy man right now - Hope he is ok.

[Beestie]

Oh, he's fine, I'm sure. He's not clandestine. I interpret his silence as an indication that we are in a very high state of military alert and all outside comm has been cut off.

[classicman]

Officials acknowledge that with North Korea already sanctioned to the hilt, such measures may do little more than get the regime's attention. But maybe that is the point. North Korea is known for its attention-grabbing, and some officials predict (read: wish) that a strong international reaction could be what Pyongyang needs to nudge it back to the table.

As one senior official put it, "Once we both know we have each other's attention, we can have a drink and a smoke and get back to business."

But even as the administration looks down the road at another round of six-party talks, officials are questioning the long-term viability of the exercise. Gary Samore, the president's top adviser for nonproliferation, and Hillary Clinton have both said that North Korea does not appear to want the talks to move forward.

That's the thing about talks -- they generally aren't productive when only one side is talking.

Seriously complicating matters is the health of ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and the lack of clear succession in place. Officials say that the country's internal dynamics are a large, if not the critical, component driving North Korea's actions.

It's particularly concerning because the future of the regime is one where nobody, including the Chinese, can do anything to alter the equation. In that case even the most strenuous international diplomacy may influence North Korean behavior on the margins but will have little effect on how this situation ultimately plays out.

With decades of diplomacy unable to produce a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, it begs the question of whether it is time for a fundamental overhaul of U.S. policy toward North Korea. There are serious conversations in Washington and among capitals about whether North Korea has reached a "tipping point," offering the world final proof it is intent on developing what it calls a "nuclear deterrent."

A nuclear weapon with the missile systems to deliver it would not only pose an existential threat to South Korea and Japan, officials fear it would spark an arms race in East Asia -- turning this region, which has been relatively stable for 40 years, into a much different place.



The U.S. and its allies must huddle quickly and develop a plan to prevent this alternate -- and scary -- reality.

...if possible.

To me this guy seems intent on getting the respect of being a nuclear power by the time he dies and thats not too far off apparently.
No talking is going to change that and there are really no more sanctions that will have an effect. Strap on your seatbelts - this is gonna be a rough ride.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by classicman

Strap on your seatbelts - this is gonna be a rough ride.

I wouldn't be surprised if Japan and SK join in on an East Asian arm's race. They are already extremely scared of China's gaining power and wants an excuse to militarize as well.

[classicman]

I agree, but that is just the immediate effect - this will be further reaching than that.