China Question

[tw]

Warning: not too long - only 40 lines.

The China problem is not fully appreciated in other threads. Noted previously was an exploded school where rumors of fireworks construction were denied at highest levels. But the telling story is that a top government offical himself did not believe the reports and sent in undercover investigators - and permitted the truth to be revealed.

China is not a monolith - which conservative 'bomb then into the stone age' fools would have us think. A better example of China is 1980 Ford Motor Company. No matter what happened where the work gets done, the knowledge at highest levels was to distorted to appreciate the problem.

In China, top level official were presented with a plane collision that was simply distorted by too many levels of bureaucracy - the nature of communism when you work for your boss and not for your underlings. Long time political advisers noted on Charlie Rose, et al that the only way this problem was going to be solved was if a trusted third party American were to make a private visit with the Chinese premier carrying, if necessary, secret facts. Ironically, one such person would have been Richard Nixon.

Having made rediculous accusations that the airplane violated Chineses airspace - only to learn later this occured after declaring a mayday - now the Chinese leadership needs a safe out. Any public reversal would be devestating to the Chinese emotions. IOW they demanded an apology from the US - regardless of what they later learned was incorrect.

Quietly, a private, third party mission may have already happened - and the George Bush declaration of regret was simply the public confirmation that the third party representative was sent by Bush. Having confirmed that the third party messenger did indeed represent a back channel (see the recent movie 14 Days to appreciate that concept), then Chinese and American negotiators sat down to hammer out a way out of this confrontation that was acceptable to the honor of both sides.

Especially scary is a public poll where 40% Americans said we should apologize just to get our 24 aircrew back. What a disaster these totally ignorant 40% represent!

We must deal with a country where top management really has little idea of what is happening inside the country. We must tread carefully here since the American economy has much at stake in China. A mistake too early would but place this top China management in a position where their only alternative was destructive action. We must ask as Kennedy kept asking during the Cuban Missile Crisis: "What are they thinking. What is their mindset." We must be careful before taking any action to be sure that top Chinese leadership really does understand the current situation.

US Military, BTW, is rumored to be very upset with this political caution.

Bush has done stupid, no intelligent decisions. The list is already quite long to include tax cuts, serious European relation problems, Middle East, arsenic drinking water, global warming, and some silly idea that an energy crisis exists. This China situation is the only thing, so far, he has done properly. Yes, up to now he has been that bad a President. However if you did not appreciate the above delicate nature of the China problem, they you probably also don't understand how much destruction Bush has created to foreign relations elsewhere.

[Dagnabit]

I saw a bit on China where a local university prof, who has spent lots of time in China, summarized their mindset. The most important thing to the Chinese leadership is that they not lose face, because that is the worst thing that can happen in their culture.

[bepatient]

I'm interested in just a couple of points you made later in the post about our friend GWB.

First, how do you determine that a tax cut is a bad thing? Historically, tax cuts on this scale have actually increased revenue to the federal government. Its a phenomenon know as the Laffer curve. It worked for Kennedy, Reagan and will probably work the same for Bush. You AND the Fed get more money. Win Win.

Also, maybe you're too young to remember the 70's, but I'm not. We are definitely 25 years into an energy crisis...largely un-noticed until last year when OPEC decided to hold us hostage again.

The global warming accord dovetails from the economy. IIRC, the demands placed on the US to meet the accord were completely unrealistic. But, when the press gets hold of this issue, its always going to be spun as "Bush wants to trash the planet" instead of the real issue of the economic impact involved in trying to meet the standards set by that agreement.

I don't think Bush has carved his likeness into Rushmore just yet, but his first couple of months haven't been as bad as you seem to think they have been. Of course, thats just my opinion

[russotto]

Well, seeing as my effective tax rate (FIT ONLY) is just under 22%, I'm all for a tax cut and I don't think it's stupid at all. And any excuse not to treat CO2 as a pollutant is a good one -- to do so would put the whole country in a much worse position than California is today, since all power production based on combustion produces copious amounts of CO2.

As for the Chinese, IMO they're being assholes because they can, and possibly because they want to test Bush's mettle; obviously Bush can't back down and apologize, or he'll not be taken seriously ever again. They cannot seriously believe (nor could they have seriously believed) that the USs propeller-driven plane managed to run into their fighter through no fault of the fighters. The territorial-limits thing is another matter; China claims more than international law allows as their limit, and the US routinely ignores those claims.

[jaguar]

while i havne't had much of a chance to analyse Koyoto (i'm a student in australia with a life for fucks sake) I have to point out one, tiny-itty-bitty fact about CO2 polutants and power prduction/ whats gonna hurt the US economy.

Ok, so it isin't 'good' for the economy, BULLSHIT
Go 10 years down the track, half of florida is at risk of flooding, Miami is underwater(and the water heavily poluted with crack cocaine), many cities are at high risk from a big wave, many an area of europe, pacafic islands etc are either flooding or at high risk ,IS THAT GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY????

Having more power won't help you when half of california is underwater. Time to spend some real money on doing somthing about it that is LONG TERM, somthing pollies aren't good at coz they don't see ithelping them in the next election.
'nuff said