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-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

henry quirk 03-17-2020 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048601)
I understand the reflexive anti-expert instinct, I'm a generalist myself. I'll build a house, raise some animals, or tend a garden but for something like this I want credentials.

I'm not anti-expert, I'm anti-panic.

Undertoad 03-17-2020 01:18 PM

Anti-panic stats scientist weighs in

Quote:

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.
...
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. ... Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

Happy Monkey 03-17-2020 01:42 PM

Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.

henry quirk 03-17-2020 02:01 PM

Here ya go, Griff...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048663)

...a credentialed SOB

henry quirk 03-17-2020 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1048665)
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.

Examples, please.

monster 03-17-2020 02:23 PM

I'm concerned about the UK isolating the over 70s. I feel -in addition to all the obvious things- they might be vulnerable to tricksters coming to their door masked, pretending to be offering aid.... :/

Griff 03-17-2020 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1048663)

This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.

henry quirk 03-17-2020 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048669)
This whole article bears reading and yes he has appropriate credentials. We need prevalence data to do this thing right.

I agree, it's a useful piece, but not cuz it comes from an expert. It's useful cuz, like the piece I linked, it's chockablock with common sense, a commodity that's becomin' quite rare in the public sphere.

Griff 03-17-2020 08:55 PM

March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point

Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.

henry quirk 03-17-2020 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1048681)
March 17th: Why do people distrust experts?

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510053/on-point

Tom Nichols talking about science experts making fewer mistakes than neophytes and getting corrected by their peers when wrong... among other things.

March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?

March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?

March 17th: Why are some good people douchebags?

Let's see national progressive radio tackle those.

xoxoxoBruce 03-17-2020 11:48 PM

If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.

Griff 03-18-2020 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry quirk (Post 1048687)
March 17th: Why do some people mistrust their own common sense?

Because it is limited by our personal experience and the narratives we run in our own heads to try to make sense of the world.

Quote:

March 17th: Why do some people believe that not auto-deferring to experts is synonymous with being anti-expert?
Because sometimes delaying action kills people in the real world. We have to use the best information and judgement we can lay our hands on in those moments. It could be wrong but we attempted to use reason not rhetoric which is generally better.

Quote:

March 17th: Why are some good people douchebags?
Because people are fallible and honestly don't know what is happening in others' heads.

henry quirk 03-18-2020 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 1048703)
If they said a meteor shower was coming where they actually hit the ground, but there's only less than 1% chance of being hit, I'd still take cover rather than ignore it.

Have I suggested anyone ignore anything?

tw 03-18-2020 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy Monkey (Post 1048665)
Anti-panic is always correct, but too often anti-panic is conflated with anti-information.

We know that something like 60 to 70% of the population probably must suffer infection before this pandemic subsides. So how long should schools remain closed?

CDC had been advising all national school supervisors about every other day based upon the best known science. Latest science suggests that schools may need be closed anywhere from 5 weeks to well into the summer.

Then suddenly, the White House ordered CDC to stop briefing the nation's school supervisors. Facts necessary to make an informed decision are too alarming. White House refuses to admit why they ordered such briefing terminated. Exactly what one does to create panic.

85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management. Since the president is clearly incompetent, then people who are been taking actions and implementing standards (therefore are averting panic) are governors and large city mayors. That is where and why panic has been averted. Fortunately they have addressed this problem. An incompetent and corrupt president also never once ran a successful company. 85% of all problems directly traceable to one who only makes decisions based upon his reelection.

Yesterday, in a news briefing, reporters noted a sharp change in this president. He was subdued and not bombastic. Resulting in an interesting change in the tone of reporters questions. It was more like a press conference conducted by previous presidents. The Don did very little talking. Others (educated and more responsible) did most of the talking. So facts instead of attacks were more in evidence.

Apparently this president, who was denying this pandemic until recently, is finally hearing even what his extremist staff has been saying. And who has almost nothing to say? Man that Trump assigned the job to - VP Pence. Which is good. He has nothing informed to offer. Best thing he can do to avert panic is to say nothing.

So the question. Who in the White House ordered the CDC silent? When we most need to know facts.

How long does this virus last on surfaces? Are infected people immune from a future infection? How long is someone contagious before symptoms appear? Does this virus spread airborne? How many are contagious without any symptoms (which means different tests to determine anti-bodies)? Is there a second strain of Covid-19 as indicated by some who reportedly got this virus again?

Two week quarantines were never to stop this pandemic. Since America did virtually nothing for two months, then these quarantines are necessary so that test kits, protective gear, and plans can be made. For example, we know two big manufacturers of face masks did nothing to increase production until after even the stock market was crashing. Only then did they have a response from government that this infection would be addressed. Because Trump said there were only five infections. And he expected that number to drop to one next week.

Of course he lied. He can't stop himself. Knowing his long history may have also averted panic. Educated people simply assume anything he says is probably a lie.

Korea defined a death rate of 3.6%. Koreans addressed this problem up front. Having performed a quarter of a million tests. Statistics there should be more accurate. Especially since Korea (per capita) did 700% more than America has. (Both countries observed similar infection rates at the same time.)

China says a death rate in Wuhan was, at one point, as high as 20%. But a death rate in the rest of Hubei province remained below 5%. Death rates among passengers on the Grand Princess are useless. Since that ship was kept out of San Francisco until test kits were delivered. How many kits? They could only find 45 kits to test about 4200 passengers and crew. Numbers were subjected to White House approval.

Only thing that is averting panic is latest information - not suppressed and subverted by a president who has lied every day of his adult life.

henry quirk 03-18-2020 09:21 AM

we attempted to use reason

Don't attempt: do.

This is all I'm suggesting, to much resistance and mischaracterization, here and elsewhere.


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